Delphi methods

Revised 9/10
Wimba compatible

1. Reminder:
HW due today
(if not handed in last time)

. . . Still a few hours left
      Confusions?
      Questions?

2. Today's Plan

Start by learning the
"Delphi method"

Each person will then
use the Delphi method

- to extract group wisdom
- from the class
- on a question
  about the future

     Write down your
     question now!. . . We will need

   a recorder
   for each question,
   to record results

The person
whose question it is
should consider
using the results
as part of their term project

. . . (If you change term project topic later,
you can still put these results in an appendix)

3. The Delphi Method
    - Background

It is a town in Greece
(named Δελφοί)

. . . do you know those Greek letters?

Delphi was the site of
the "Delphic Oracle"

. . . (the Oracle of Apollo,
      which was in Delphi)

. . . . . Apollo was a Greek god,
         a U.S. space program, &
         series of space ships




(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Apollo_program_insignia.png)

Oracle:
source of
wisdom or prediction


. . . same root as
      oral
      oration
      etc.


. . . a crystal ball is
      an example of
      an oracle

(Source: http://www.zgeek.com/forum/gallery/files/6/3/2/escher_crystal_ball_original.gif)

(Source: http://theweatherpages.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/crystal-ball1.jpg)

The Delphi method
- extracts
  "wise predictions"
  from groups

Well. . .
we are a group!

4. The Delphi Method
    - How it works

(Of course,
variations exist)


1. Formulate
    the question

. . . Should be
     "sharp and
      answerable"

- Futures Research Methodology V3.0, Ed. by J.C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon


2. Present
    results
    to participants


. . . Discuss, especially
      the most
      extreme opinions


. . . Important!
      Avoid conformism
      just to conform

. . . . . . "Campaigning"
            distorts the
            group wisdom


3. Participants
    - reconsider their answers
      in light of the discussion

4. Overall results include:

. . . median (why not mean?)

. . . depiction of the spread
     (e.g. middle 50%
             total range)


(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)


5. There is
no better time
to try it than now!