Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Delphi methods

Revised 9/10
Wimba compatible

1. Reminder:
HW due today
(if not handed in last time)

. . . Still a few hours left

2. Today's Plan

Start by learning the
"Delphi method"

Each person will then
use the Delphi method

- to extract group wisdom
- from the class
- on a question
  about the future

     Write down your
     question now!. . . We will need
   a recorder
   for each question,
   to record results

The person
whose question it is
should consider
using the results
as part of their term project

. . . (If you change term project topic later,
you can still put these results in an appendix)

3. The Delphi Method
    - Background

It is a town in Greece
(named Δελφοί)

. . . do you know those Greek letters?

Delphi was the site of
the "Delphic Oracle"

. . . (the Oracle of Apollo,
      which was in Delphi)
. . . . . Apollo was a Greek god,
         a U.S. space program, &
         series of space ships


source of
wisdom or prediction

. . . same root as

. . . a crystal ball is
      an example of
      an oracle

The Delphi method
- extracts
  "wise predictions"
  from groups

Well. . .
we are a group!

4. The Delphi Method
    - How it works

(Of course,
variations exist)

1. Formulate
    the question

. . . Should be
     "sharp and
- Futures Research Methodology V3.0, Ed. by J.C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon

2. Present
    to participants

. . . Discuss, especially
      the most
      extreme opinions

. . . Important!
      Avoid conformism
      just to conform

. . . . . . "Campaigning"
            distorts the
            group wisdom

3. Participants
    - reconsider their answers
      in light of the discussion

4. Overall results include:

. . . median (why not mean?)

. . . depiction of the spread
     (e.g. middle 50%
             total range)

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)

5. There is
no better time
to try it than now!

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