Delphi Method II

(Narrow column,
numbered slides
to be Wimba-friendly!)

Ver. 1.1 (updated 5/19/2011)


Today

1. Finish the
"Delphi method"

      (next time:
     - prediction markets)



2. Recall the process


. . . each remaining student
will extract the
wisdom of the group
by using
the Delphi Method



. . . (I will help as needed)

. . . Each person will also
      have a chance
      to be the recorder


3. Before we start
   

Recall from last time:

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)





Source: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html


. . . Entire books
      have been written on
      the Delphi Method




4. Let's finish using

    the Delphi Method
    now . . .



5. Let's reflect a bit . . .
We're doing it for practice

. . . how would doing it
      "professionally"
      differ?


. . . and what are the
      "so whats?" of
      these differences?


. . . consider www.wired.com/wiredscience/20-11/05/wisdom-of-crowds-decline



6. Ambiguity in the question
- another important issue



. . .we've noticed
     this problem

     let's look at a
     well-known
     example
     Often, public parks
    have rules

    The rules try to
    make them fun
    for everyone


. . . The Greenway Park
      Community Board
      met and proposed
      this rule:

. . . What does this
      really say . . . 
      - and how can we fix it??