then go from there to climate
. . . My lab was involved in an interesting weather research project
. . . Later, let's discuss if the results apply to climate...
Predicting the Weather
Remember "Spoil Sports of the Prediction Game"?
. . . That's why weather forecasters have a bad reputation
. . . . . . It's not their fault!
. . . . . . They're doing the best they can
. . . They often do okay short term
. . . . . . We'll never predict the weather on this date next year
. . . . . . Delphi method: how far in advance do you think we'll get?
2. What about weather control?
. . . Like here in the US in, say...
. . . . . . Minneapolis (straight north of Little Rock)
. . . . . . Buffalo (lots of Great Lakes-related snow)
. . . . . . etc.
. . . Little Rock -
. . . . . . Snow equipment costs a bundle, hardly ever needed
. . . . . . Cheaper just to shut down the city
. . . . . . . . . That's expensive too (but at least you get an extra vacation day!)
The Russian Air Force sprayed clouds with liquid nitrogen, silver (iodide?), and cement
. . . in 2009
. . . see news article link under image above
. . . no word on whether it worked
3. Interestingly, you can buy weather modification equipment
. . . http://www.nawcinc.com/photos.html
. . . How well it works is another issue...
4. What's easier, predicting or controlling weather?
. . . What would you guess?
5. About research from my lab
. . . Experiments done by former grad student Dongping Xu
. . . . . . as-yet unpublished research
What predictions are more reliable:
Forecasting the weather?
Forecasting the effects of weather modifications?
How we answered
1. Predict the weather using MM5 on given initial weather pattern
2. Add a bug to MM5, run it again
. . . what is a bug?
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:H96566k.jpg, in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_bug
3. Do this for many different bugs
4. Calculate the average amount of change caused by a bug
. . . that is, change to some quantitative weather value
Why care about how MM5 acts when bugs are added?
6. Now do another experiment
(Delta is a Greek letter that is a triangle)
"Δ" means "change"
7. Weather prediction is considerably more bug-resistant than weather intervention prediction
of weather modifications very well,
unless we get rid of all bugs,
and we already know we can't do that."