HW5

HW 5 Due Monday Oct. 4, 2010
(Extended to: before class on Wednesday Oct. 6)

As promised from last HW: Recall that a project is part of the course, and this project will grow step by step throughout the semester. In other words, you will keep adding to it as we go along, so that in the end it will be a piece of work you can be proud of! Make up a tentative plan for your term project, which will be a paper, software system, combination, skit or musical performance or painting (if you are a fine arts major), or whatever it is. You may analyze the same topic as you used for your Delphi exercise, or change topics but include the Delphi results as an appendix or supplemental report. Also, answer the question, "What would be a good thing to do next on this project?"

1. Answer a) and b).

• a) Recall "The Last Lecture: Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams." This was very applicable to this course because he was talking about the future...your future! (Actually, his kids' futures - at the end he said that was one of his head fakes, but that's ok.) Give at least one lesson, insight, or other interesting thought you get from the movie. Explain.
• b) Consider what topic you would like to work on for a term project. In this course, we will develop the project incrementally with each HW, so that it matures as we go along and there is less risk of a mad rush at the end. You could use the topic you used for our discussion of the Delphi Method. Or you could pick another one. Either way, you can change your mind later if you like. For now, state your topic, and how sure you are about whether to do it.

2. Here are the topics we discussed for the Delphi Method. Many of these will likely become term projects, so let us become more familiar with them so as to be able to discuss them better and help each other more. The topics are:

• Future of holography
• Future of birth control
• Future of robotic surgery
• Future of online and virtual education
• Future of aircraft
• Future of computer processing of human language
• Future of brain-augmenting chips/helmets/computers/etc.
• Future of computers that have creativity 

The steps below will help start to familiarize all of us with these topics and enable some interesting discussions on them as we go forward.

• a) (16 2/3 pts.) Find three useful Web pages or sites, one for each of three topics above, that someone investigating it would be likely to find of interest. They should not be wikipedia articles (though wikipedia can be a good place to find links to other pages). Similarly they should not be on the first page of search engine hits for an obvious query. That's too easy because the person doing that topic would surely find it without your help!
• b) (16 2/3 pts.) Review them on your blog. For example, what is each about, what about it is interesting, what about it is not interesting, what do you agree or disagree with, why should or shouldn't someone study it, what questions does it leave you with, etc.
• c) (16 2/3 pts.) Be prepared to briefly summarize your review(s) orally in class. (Handwritten notes to speak from would be good to bring to class. No slides. We may or may not have time to do all three, we'll just have to see.)

3) Apply TRIZ to your own topic:

• a) (10 pts.) Pick a certain technology relevant to your topic. How could an implementation of it "branch out" and do other things? For example, pencils are a technology that "branched out" to also have erasers, storage bins for extra lead, clips for attaching it to a pocket, and so on. Cars now have air conditioners, play music, even have GPS devices for giving directions, etc. In the early days of cars, the idea of a car playing music would have been strange indeed!
• b) (40 pts.) TRIZ also contains 40 principles for improving technologies (to find out more do a search on the terms 'TRIZ' and '40'). These are summarized in the course notes. Pick 10 of them and apply them to a technology relevant to your topic. What are the 10 possible future advances that you have discovered?

TRIZ - finding (and making) advances in technology

Important!
If you do not yet have
   - a course blog -
it is not too late.
See me to get
things going.


1. "TRIZ":
a way to get ideas
about
future technologies

. . . But why call it TRIZ?


. . . . . . because "TRIZ"
            stands for:
           Теория
           решения
           изобретательских
           задач


. . . . . . . . . (of course -
                 what else
                 could it
                 stand for?)


. . . . . . transliteration:
           Teoriya
           Resheniya
           Izobretatelskikh
           Zadatch


. . . . . . translation:
           Theory of
           Decisions about
           Inventor's
           Problems


. . . TRIZ
      tries to make
      getting new ideas
      about technology
      a systematic process


. . . TRIZ was created by
      Genrich Altshuller

(Source: marketada.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/altshuller.bmp)

. . . . . . He registered

            his first invention

            at age 15


. . . . . . At 20 he invented
            a way to escape
            from submarines


. . . . . . . . . (This did not help
                 the crew of
                 the Kursk)


. . . . . . . . . . . . length:
                       154 meters
                        How long is that?








. . . . . . . . . . . . (just under 1/10 mile)


. . . . . . . . . . . . height:
                       four stories

                       (not sure of the
                       conversion factor
                       for stories into feet)
                       but...
                           
                       at least this building
                       wins out that way
                                                    


. . . . . . . . . . . . was the world's
                        biggest attack submarine


. . . . . . . . . . .  in 2000 a fuel explosion
                       sank the submarine.
                       Hitting the sea bottom
                       caused torpedoes
                       to explode.
                       Some crew
                       survived both explosions
                       but perished later
                       without escaping.

       Part of salvaged wreck of
               K-141 Kursk
(Source: englishrussia.com/images/kursk_submarine/1.jpg)

(Source: englishrussia.com/images/kursk_submarine/7.jpg)



A (much smaller) sub
is docked across the
river and open for
public visits

. . . . . . Altshuller worked as
            an invention inspector
            for the Soviet navy



2. TRIZ is a compendium
    of several related
    methods and approaches


. . . see e.g.
http://www.amsup.com/images/triz/triz.gif:

. . . also see
http://www.mazur.net/triz/contradi.htm
(e.g. http://www.mazur.net/triz/contra02.gif):

3. Let's look at TRIZ
- and also apply to
your topics


. . . One aspect:
the natural evolution
from doing one key task
and "branching out"


. . . . . . first pencils wrote

            then they "branched out":
            now they erase,
                            store,
                            don't need sharpening,
                            clip on, etc.


. . . . . . From keyboards
            to foldup keyboards,
            ergonomic keyboards,
            what other kinds?




. . . . . . How have
            cell phones
            branched out?



. . . . . . This also explains
            "bloatware"



. . . . . . Can you think of
            something that
            has not
            branched out much?



4. Also from TRIZ:
usability,
aesthetics
become factors later


. . . Early cars:
"you can get any color car
you want as long as it's black"


Example, anyone?





5.   TRIZ also has
         a set of 40
Principles of Invention

. . . the 40 Principles of Invention
. . . (see e.g.
      http://www.triz40.com/aff_Principles.htm)

We can think about these 
with respect to the 
evolution of any technology 


For example:
consider some relatively recent
inventions that have room to grow


        E-readers
        CFLs
        Transgenic "enviropigs"
        Robots
       

6. . . . . . "Segmentation":
break something unitary
into parts, modules, pieces, etc.


. . . . . . . . . E.g. replace large truck
                  with a
                 tractor+trailer design
                 (is that good?)

7. . . . . . "Taking out":
            remove a part


. . . . . . . . . E.g. put a
noisy air compressor
outside the building
where the air is used


. . . . . . . . . E.g. Use the
bark but not the dog
as part of a burglar alarm

8. . . . . . "Local Quality":
make something that is
uniform, nonuniform


. . . . . . . . . E.g. refrigerator with
freezer,
moist cold bin for veggies,
dry cold bin for meat, etc.


9. . . . . . "Assymetry":
make something that is symmetric, assymetric


. . . . . . . . . E.g. make a round rod have a flat part so a knob can turn it without slipping


10. . . . . . "Merging":
assemble similar objects into a larger assembly


. . . . . . . . . E.g. make a network of PCs


. . . . . . . . . E.g. 3 wheels more stable than 2 more stable than 1


. . . . . . . . . You can get emergent properties!


11. . . . . . "Universality":
make one thing do more than one thing


. . . . . . . . . E.g. pencil can erase, store, attach as well as write


12. . . . . . "Nested Doll":
(like those Russian dolls)


. . . . . . . . . E.g. set of measuring spoons


13. . . . . . "Anti-weight":
counter heaviness with flotation


. . . . . . . . . E.g. non-sinking boats; balloons; airplane wings and boat hydrofoils


14. . . . . . "Preliminary anti-action":
counter bad effects of good things somehow


. . . . . . . . . E.g. lead aprons at the dentist


. . . . . . . . . E.g. slow-release medications


15. . . . . . "Preliminary action":
do something to an object before it is needed


. . . . . . . . . E.g. put glue on paper before selling it - stickers! Tape!


. . . . . . . . . E.g. sterilize surgical instruments for next time - autoclaves, etc.


16. . . . . . "Beforehand cushioning":
have backup systems incorporated in case of failure


. . . . . . . . . E.g. emergency parachutes, fire escapes, parking brakes


17. . . . . . "Equipotentiality":
compensate for gravity


. . . . . . . . . E.g. spring-loaded cafeteria dish dispenser


18. . . . . . "The other way round":
reverse the action; go upside down; make something fixed, movable (or the reverse)


. . . . . . . . . E.g. rotate part instead of tool; treadmills; escalators


19. . . . . . "Spheroidality":
change from flat or angular surfaces to curved


. . . . . . . . . E.g. domes and arches; ball-point pens instead of quills


20. . . . . . "Dynamics":
make it movable or flexible


. . . . . . . . . E.g. adjustable car seats; medical scopes in flexible tubes


21. . . . . . "Partial or excessive actions":
Do a little too much or too little, then fix


. . . . . . . . . E.g. put a bit too much on your plate, then leave a little; almost fill your tank, then top off


22. . . . . . "Another dimension":
use the 3rd dimension or 4th, etc.


. . . . . . . . . E.g. 3D TV; add wings to car; 2-sided screen; double toothbrush; dump truck


23. . . . . . "Mechanical vibration":
cause oscillation/vibration


. . . . . . . . . E.g. electric hedge trimmer/carving knife; gall stone destruction; ultrasonic neurostimulation


24. . . . . . "Periodic action":
keep repeating


. . . . . . . . E.g. hitting nail with hammer; warbling siren


25. . . . . . "Continuity of useful action":
eliminate breaks


. . . . . . . . . E.g. night light; auto time sharing


26. . . . . . "Skipping":
do it so fast that harm is averted


. . . . . . . . . E.g. flash freezing; heated ice cream scoop


27. . . . . . "Turn Lemons into Lemonade":
use bad effect for a good purpose


. . . . . . . . . E.g. make/save money by recycling (reuse blank side; sell cans)


28. . . . . . "Feedback": improve performance by examining the effects


. . . . . . . . . E.g. hard to spend money in late spring here; cruise control


29. . . . . . "Intermediary": link/separate 2 things with a go-between


. . . . . . . . . E.g. potholder; nailset; shuttle diplomacy


30. . . . . . "Self-service": something serves itself


. . . . . . . . . E.g. fertilize with grass clippings; pot liquor to improve flavor


31. . . . . . "Copying": save with inexpensive copies


. . . . . . . . . E.g. VR instead of reality; photos; music on CD instead of live, etc.


32. . . . . . "Cheap short-lived objects": throw it away afterwards


. . . . . . . . . E.g. paper plates; disposable diapers; anyone remember returnable bottles?


33. . . . . . "Mechanics substitution": get rid of moving parts or other objects


. . . . . . . . . E.g. CD instead of vinyl record; acoustic pet fence


34. . . . . . "Pneumatics and hydraulics": use gas and liquid instead of solid parts


. . . . . . . . . E.g. gel-filled footwear soles; propane instead of logs


35. . . . . . "Flexible shells and thin films": get rid of heavy, solid things


. . . . . . . . . E.g. paper instead of slates; balloons


36. . . . . . "Porous materials": make nonporous things, porous


. . . . . . . . . E.g. save weight by making it fluffier


37. . . . . . "Color changes": change color or transparency of object or environment


. . . . . . . . . E.g. use red light to see nocturnal critters in a zoo


. . . . . . . . . E.g. use differently colored markers for writing


38. . . . . . "Homogeneity": make interacting objects of the same material


. . . . . . . . . E.g. cut diamonds with diamond dust


. . . . . . . . . E.g. make artificial organs out of person's own cells


39. . . . . . "Discarding and recovering": it disappears or changes itself


. . . . . . . . . E.g. biodegradable plastic bags; mechanical pencils


40. . . . . . "Parameter changes": change properties of a substance


. . . . . . . . . E.g. heat food to cook/kill germs


41. . . . . . "Phase transitions":


. . . . . . . . . E.g. freeze liquid center, then dip in warm chocolate


. . . . . . . . . E.g. air conditioning works by vaporizing/condensing a liquid


42. . . . . . "Thermal expansion": things expand/contract with temperature


. . . . . . . . . E.g. make thermostats that bend and curve as temperature changes


. . . . . . . . . . . . We could do this in this class fairly easily!


43. . . . . . "Strong oxidants": use oxygen-enrichment


. . . . . . . . . E.g. medical use; match heads and rocket fuel


44. . . . . . "Inert atmosphere": use chemically inactive stuff


. . . . . . . . . E.g. store priceless artifacts in argon or nitrogen


. . . . . . . . . E.g. add filler when making pills so you can pick them up


45. . . . . . "Composite materials": use multiple materials in a substance


. . . . . . . . . E.g. fiberglass; reinforced concrete

HW4

HW due Wednesday 9/22/10

Prediction Markets: Tapping the Wisdom of Groups


Recall that prediction markets try to combine peoples' best judgments using a financial incentive to make sure the judgments really are the best they can make. There is interest in this topic - for example an academic journal started in 2007 which is devoted to scholarly examination of prediction markets, their structure, how well they work, etc.

This HW will hopefully be fun, and will help you gain a hands-on understanding of how prediction markets work.

1) (22.5 pts.) Let's assume you have $1,000 to invest in prediction markets. Naturally, you want to make more money, meaning that when you sell your best judgments you get more than the $1,000 you invested. Identify a prediction market company that you want to pretend invest in. We looked at http://www.intrade.com/ in class but it is easy to find others: just do a Web search on "prediction market." Using intrade as an example, http://www.intrade.com/ has both a set of real markets where you can invest (or some might claim gamble) real money, and a practice market site where you can invest pretend money. You can pretend invest in the real market without signing up for a login, or you can make a login account with them and use the practice market. Or you can find another prediction market other than intrade.com. You could even sign up for real at some prediction market company (keeping in mind that this course does not endorse, or suggest you to spend real money on, any particular company!). For the next question let's assume you are making pretend use of intrade's set of real markets.

2) (22.5 pts.) Find 10 prediction markets that you are interested in or know more about than most others. For example, you might pick the prediction market for whether 2010 will be the hottest year on record, the prediction market for some election issue that you might have some familiarity with, and some other eight. In fact there are dozens and dozens if not hundreds of markets they have easily accessible from their Web site. Make a list of your favorite 10.

3) (22.5 pts) For each of the 10 markets, decide whether the current probability shown on the graph is higher or lower than your best judgment. For this assignment it is the most recent number in the graph that we are interested in. List which of the 10 you judge the current probability to be too low. For example, maybe the graph shows 66 but you think 85% would be more accurate. Those are the ones that you expect to go up, so that you could make money.

4) Invest your $1,000 in the ones you feel are currently too low, as follows.

• a. (3.5 pts.) Pick one of the markets. Say which one
• b. (3.5 pts.) Figure out the price of a single contract (a contract is a little like a share of stock). That price is: (the probability in percentage points) x ($0.10). So if the probability on the graph is 65, meaning 65%=0.65, then a single contract will cost you 65 x $0.10, or $6.50, to buy. Give this price in your HW.
• c. (3.5 pts.) Decide how many contracts to buy (remember you have $1,000 but will want to spread that over a number of different markets). Note the number in your HW.
• d. (3.5 pts.) Figure out the total amount you are investing in this market. State this.
• e. (8.5 pts.) Subtract that from $1,000 to find out how much you have left to invest in the other markets. Then go through the above steps again using another market. Repeat until you have invested all of the $1,000 in the markets you have chosen to invest in.

Please note that if you think a graph shows a number that is too high, then it would make little sense to buy shares of that market since you think it will eventually go down!

5) (10 pts., to be assigned toward the end of the semester. 10 if you make money, but only 5 if you lose money, sorry!) You may sell any of your contracts at any time during the semester, and buy any new contracts you like with the money you got from selling (or just hang on to the money if you prefer). You are not required to do this, if you just want to keep the same contracts. To sell, just see what the contracts you have are worth, using the graphs at the company Web site, and pretend you've sold them. Keep track of what you do by editing your blog entry for this HW. Toward the end of the semester I will ask everyone to sell everything and we'll see how much money you've made or lost!


--------------------------------------------------

A note about the next HW: the following or something like it will be part of the next HW, but not this one.

Recall that a project is part of the course, and this project will grow step by step throughout the semester. In other words, you will keep adding to it as we go along, so that in the end it will be a piece of work you can be proud of! Make up a tentative plan for your term project, which will be a paper, software system, combination, skit or musical performance or painting (if you are a fine arts major), or whatever it is. You may analyze the same topic as you used for your Delphi exercise, or change topics but include the Delphi results as an appendix or supplemental report. Also, answer the question, "What would be a good thing to do next on this project?"

Social Wisdom: Prediction Markets

Wimba-friendly:
large font,
narrow column,
numbered slides



1. Putting your
money where
your mouth is

2. People make
predictions
all the time

. . . about
      other peoples'
      reactions

. . . . . . ability to predict
            the effect of
            your actions on others
            is useful

. . . . . . you need a
           "theory of mind"

. . . . . . you're in a
            game theory
            scenario

. . . . . . data suggests
            population density
            may be
            a major cause of
            human brain size

Human brain. Credits: Patrick J. Lynch, medical illustrator; C. Carl Jaffe, MD, cardiologist. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/

Chimpanzee brain. Credits: Gaetan Lee; tilt corrected by Kaldari. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

. . . . . . this is the
            social competition theory
            of human brain genesis
           (ref.: Bailey & Geary,
           Hominid Brain Evolution:
           Testing Climatic,
           Ecological, and Social Competition
           Models
          Human Nature,
          vol. 20, no. 1,
          Mar. 2009, pp. 67-79. )http://www.springerlink.com/content/13t74x04552g5148/fulltext.html

. . . . . . so the need to predict
            may explain
            why we're human!
            (Predict what?)



3. Of course,
prediction is
important
in other areas too

Consider
the weather

Credits:
Don Amaro from
Madeira Islands,
Portugal,
upload by Herrick
17:17, 4 December 2007 (UTC).
Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Waterspout.
Credits: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/bigs/wea00308.jpg.
1969 September 10.
Photographer: Dr. Joseph Golden,
NOAA. Public domain.

 . . . The National Weather Service (NWS)
       is a large, highly technical
       gov't agency devoted to
              prediction
       using large computers, etc.

. . . It's not perfect
      but it's
      much better than nothing

. . . weather prediction
      uses computers,
      but other kinds of
      prediction
      can use other methods



4. Like group wisdom...

     Sports betting
     is an example

     Another example:

     . . . Will the
     average global temperature
     for 2010
     be the highest 
     ever recorded?

     . . . at 1:48 this afternoon:
     you can buy a "yes"
     for $8.00
     . . . if you're right -
           you will get $10
    . . . if you're wrong -

Last year's graph of
bets for a hot 2009
Credits: intrade.com, http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=672070&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com
 
Why should it
get closer to
100 or 0
as the year
proceeds?
 
Could it ever go high,
then end up low
(or vice versa)?
 
What do you think
the 2010 graph
for
"2010 to be hottest
year on record"
looks like?
(Ok, guess)

. . . we'll check on intrade.com soon...


5. More about sports

Tim Henman
serving at Wimbledon, 2005.
Credits:
Photo by Spiralz
license:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

 . . . Sports betting
       has a
       long history

 . . . People want to
       predict games
       
       They'll pay
       good money
       to do it!

. . . An honest "bookmaker"
      will offer odds
      that result in
      equal payoff
      regardless of outcome

. . . (But why
     would you think
     a bookmaker is honest?)

. . . By equalizing the payoffs,
      the true odds
      according to group wisdom
      become evident


6. Political prediction...

. . .During election season,
     media and candidates
     all try to
     predict outcomes

. . . Some of it
      you don't hear about

. . . polling,
      trend analysis,
      sociological analysis
      are big

      . . . but why is
      asking people
      their opinion
      unreliable?

. . . predictions markets
      have been claimed
      to do it better!

7. About corporate stocks...

. . . . . . The stock market
            is a
            "leading economic indicator"

. . . . . . (Economists pay
            special attention to
            leading indicators)

. . . . . . Is the stock market
            a prediction market?

8. If someone
asked you
to invent a way
to collect
group predictive wisdom,
what might you come up with?

. . . Maybe a
      Delphi-like method

. . . Probably (?) not
      prediction markets

. . . . . . An early design for
            prediction markets
            appears in
            The Shockwave Rider,
            by John Brunner, 1975

. . . . . . His term was Delphi Pool

. . . . . . General idea:
            putting their money at stake
            makes people
            generate better predictions

9. Terrorism and
    prediction markets

. . . . . . DARPA's PAM
            (Policy Analysis Market)
            permitted a
            prediction market
            for terrorist attacks

. . . . . . Does that
            sound like
            a good idea
            to you?

+ we might have forwarning

- terrorists might
  buy predictions, then
  make them come true
  and make money!

. . . . . . In 2003,
           2 senators found out,
           PAM was cancelled, and
           a DARPA
           program director resigned

. . . . . . . . . not clear if
                  terrorism predictions
                  were ever traded






10. An example prediction market

. . . see http://www.intrade.com/,
      check short video,
      and look at the site

. . . HW will be to
      invest pretend money
      in a prediction market,
      and research and compare
      prediction markets
      and the
      Delphi method

HW3

HW3. NOTE: this is due before class next Wednesday! That way we can apply it directly in class.

We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.

1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that would work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did, and (3) using semi-random numbers of your choice, make a graph like the one discussed.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library, if you remember what those are - they still have useful stuff not available on-line!). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.

3. Based on what you find out about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

4. Either do (a) or (b), but not both.

(a) Consider the topic that you discussed for HW2, for which you discussed the future impacts of (on individuals, organizations, and society):

- make a list of several future potential impacts (such as privacy, security, quality, or any others that seem useful to list), that relate to individuals, such as people like yourself. Explain why these impacts might occur.

- make a list of several future potential impacts (such as privacy, security, quality, or any others that seem useful to list), that relate to organizations, such as businesses, government, etc. Explain why these impacts might occur.

- make a list of several future potential impacts (such as privacy, security, quality, or any others that seem useful to list), that relate to society as a whole. Explain why these impacts might occur.

Delphi Method II

(Narrow column,
numbered slides
to be Wimba-friendly!)

Ver. 1.1 (updated 5/19/2011)


Today

1. Finish the
"Delphi method"

      (next time:
     - prediction markets)



2. Recall the process


. . . each remaining student
will extract the
wisdom of the group
by using
the Delphi Method



. . . (I will help as needed)

. . . Each person will also
      have a chance
      to be the recorder


3. Before we start
   

Recall from last time:

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)





Source: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html


. . . Entire books
      have been written on
      the Delphi Method




4. Let's finish using

    the Delphi Method
    now . . .



5. Let's reflect a bit . . .
We're doing it for practice

. . . how would doing it
      "professionally"
      differ?


. . . and what are the
      "so whats?" of
      these differences?


. . . consider www.wired.com/wiredscience/20-11/05/wisdom-of-crowds-decline



6. Ambiguity in the question
- another important issue



. . .we've noticed
     this problem

     let's look at a
     well-known
     example
     Often, public parks
    have rules

    The rules try to
    make them fun
    for everyone


. . . The Greenway Park
      Community Board
      met and proposed
      this rule:

. . . What does this
      really say . . . 
      - and how can we fix it??

HW3

HW (Note: this is due before class next Wednesday! That way we can apply it directly in class.)


We discussed the Delphi method in class. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.

1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not yet discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.

3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

Delphi methods

Revised 9/10
Wimba compatible

1. Reminder:
HW due today
(if not handed in last time)

. . . Still a few hours left
      Confusions?
      Questions?

2. Today's Plan

Start by learning the
"Delphi method"

Each person will then
use the Delphi method

- to extract group wisdom
- from the class
- on a question
  about the future

     Write down your
     question now!. . . We will need

   a recorder
   for each question,
   to record results

The person
whose question it is
should consider
using the results
as part of their term project

. . . (If you change term project topic later,
you can still put these results in an appendix)

3. The Delphi Method
    - Background

It is a town in Greece
(named Δελφοί)

. . . do you know those Greek letters?

Delphi was the site of
the "Delphic Oracle"

. . . (the Oracle of Apollo,
      which was in Delphi)

. . . . . Apollo was a Greek god,
         a U.S. space program, &
         series of space ships




(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Apollo_program_insignia.png)

Oracle:
source of
wisdom or prediction


. . . same root as
      oral
      oration
      etc.


. . . a crystal ball is
      an example of
      an oracle

(Source: http://www.zgeek.com/forum/gallery/files/6/3/2/escher_crystal_ball_original.gif)

(Source: http://theweatherpages.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/crystal-ball1.jpg)

The Delphi method
- extracts
  "wise predictions"
  from groups

Well. . .
we are a group!

4. The Delphi Method
    - How it works

(Of course,
variations exist)


1. Formulate
    the question

. . . Should be
     "sharp and
      answerable"

- Futures Research Methodology V3.0, Ed. by J.C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon


2. Present
    results
    to participants


. . . Discuss, especially
      the most
      extreme opinions


. . . Important!
      Avoid conformism
      just to conform

. . . . . . "Campaigning"
            distorts the
            group wisdom


3. Participants
    - reconsider their answers
      in light of the discussion

4. Overall results include:

. . . median (why not mean?)

. . . depiction of the spread
     (e.g. middle 50%
             total range)


(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)


5. There is
no better time
to try it than now!