More Heuristics for Prediction

"Shift Happens"
  - youtube video
we'll watch later...
but first...



Heuristics

What is a heuristic?


Last time: curves

   We saw
     linear,
     exponential,
     S, and
     plateau curves

     Recall:
     each approximates
     a small piece
     of the one after


Are those curves...
    laws?
    heuristics?
   
Today -

   A grab bag of
      heuristics
  for predicting

  (What was a heuristic again?)


Next time -
  Delphi methods

To prepare:
  think of one question
  about the future of
  something of your choice

     In class, we will use
     Delphi methods to
     apply our
     collective wisdom
     to your question

• (Also, HW is due in two classses - questions about it?)

Let's check the youtube video "Did you know?"

After that, we'll continue...

Let's make a grid on the board for:

Statements in the video (rows)

Believability (column)

Implications (column)

Hidden messages (column)

Connection to methods of prediction (column)

Let's apply some of the following methods to something in the video!
(Some of these are from p. 73 of Peter Bishop's Futuring: An Introduction to the Study of the Future, World Futures Society workshop, Chicago, 7/16/09)
   Extrapolation

   Theoretical limits

   Paradigm shifts

   Adam Smith's "invisible hand"

   Cause and effect

   Foresight instead of forecasting

   Vision

   Expectations make it so?

   Risks & possibilities

   Can the future be controlled?

   Simulation/gaming

   Scenarios

   Oracles

   Psychohistory?

   Leading indicators

   Science fiction

   Road mapping

   Metrics