Did You Know?

Heuristics


What is a heuristic?


Last time we looked at linear, exponential, S, and plateau curves


Today - a grab bag of heuristics for prediction


Next time - Delphi methods

• To prepare: think of one question about the future of something of your choice


• In class, we will use Delphi methods to apply our collective wisdom to your question


• (Also, HW is due next Monday - questions about it?)

Let's check the youtube video "Did you know?"

After that, we'll continue...

Let's make a grid on the board for:

Statements in the video (rows)

Believability (column)

Implications (column)

Hidden messages (column)

Connection to methods of prediction (column)

Let's apply each of the following methods to something in the video!