Sunday, September 20, 2009

Homework 6

HW 6 Due Monday Sept. 27, 2009

Note: I'm assuming the workload in this class is consistent with other IFSC classes...let me know if any adjustment is indicated.

1. Consider the topics students are currently focusing on (which may change as we go along):
  • Cybernetics
  • How long will Homo sapiens sapiens be the dominant species on planet Earth?
  • When will the broadband Internet speed/download speed offering reach 1 GBPS (gigabyte per second globally (i.e 51 to 49 % being dominant), where downloading a whole movie (approx 2 Gigs) would happen in 3 seconds at max?
  • When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster?
  • Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
  • When will cars will be fully automated?
  • How long before the U.S. is much more energy efficient in our homes regarding lighting?
  • What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
  • DNA database(s) of the future
  • "Green energy" technologies
  • Future markup method for data

This question will help start to familiarize all of us with these topics (leading to interesting discussions in class, for example).

  • a) (16 2/3 pts.) Find three useful Web pages or sites, one for each of three topics above, that someone investigating it would be likely to find of interest. They should not be wikipedia articles (though wikipedia can be a good place to find links to other pages). Similarly they should not be on the first page of search engine hits for an obvious query. That's too easy because the person doing that topic would surely find it without your help.
  • b) (16 2/3 pts.) Review them on your blog. For example, what is each about, what about it is interesting, what about it is not interesting, what do you agree or disagree with, why should or shouldn't someone study it, what questions does it leave you with, etc.
  • c) (16 2/3 pts.) In class, briefly summarize your review(s) orally. (We may or may not have time to do all three, we'll just have to see.)

2) Apply TRIZ to your own topic:

a) (10 pts.) Pick a certain technology relevant to your topic. How could an implementation of it "branch out" and do other things? For example, pencils are a technology that "branched out" to also have erasers, storage bins for extra lead, clips for attaching it to a pocket, and so on. Cars now have air conditioners, play music, even have GPS devices for giving directions, etc.

b) (40 pts.) TRIZ also contains 40 principles for improving technologies (to find out more do a search on the terms 'TRIZ' and '40'). These are summarized in the course notes. Pick 10 of them and apply them to a technology relevant to your topic. What are the 10 possible future advances that you have discovered?

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

TRIZ - finding (and making) advances in technology

TRIZ is a way to get ideas about future technologies

. . . But why call it TRIZ?

. . . . . . because it stands for Теория решения изобретательских задач

. . . . . . . . . (of course - what else could it stand for?)

. . . . . . transliteration: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch

. . . . . . translation: Theory of Decisions about Inventor's Problems

. . . TRIZ tries to make getting new ideas about technology a systematic process

. . . TRIZ was created by Genrich Altshuller

. . . . . . He registered his first invention at age 15

. . . . . . At 20 he invented a way to escape from submarines

. . . . . . . . . (Apparently this did not help the crew of the Kursk)

. . . . . . . . . . . . length: 154m long

. . . . . . . . . . . . height: four stories

. . . . . . . . . . . . was the world's biggest attack submarine

. . . . . . . . . . . . apparently a torpedo exploded, the sub sank to the bottom, about 350 feet down, and 2 min. 15 sec. later several more torpedoes exploded. Some crew survived both explosions but perished later without escaping.

. . . . . . Altshuller worked as an invention inspector for the Soviet navy

. . . . . . . . . (Does this make him the world's second most famous one?)



TRIZ is a compendium of several related methods and approaches

. . . see e.g. http://www.amsup.com/images/triz/triz.gif

. . . see e.g. http://www.mazur.net/triz/contradi.htm


Let's look at TRIZ - and also apply to your topics

. . . One aspect is the natural evolution from doing one key task and "branching out"

. . . . . . pencils that not only write, they erase, store, don't need to be sharpened, clip on, etc.

. . . . . . From keyboards to foldup keyboards, ergonomic keyboards, what other kinds?


Also from TRIZ: usability, aesthetics become factors later

. . . Early cars: "you can get any color car you want as long as it's black"



TRIZ also has a set of 40 Principles of Invention

. . . the 40 Principles of Invention
. . . (see e.g. http://www.triz40.com/aff_Principles.htm)

. . . . . . "Segmentation": break something unitary into parts, modules, pieces, etc.

. . . . . . . . . E.g. replace large truck with a tractor+trailer design (is that good?)

. . . . . . "Taking out": remove a part

. . . . . . . . . E.g. put a noisy air compressor outside the building where the air is used

. . . . . . . . . E.g. Use the bark but not the dog as part of a burglar alarm

. . . . . . "Local Quality": make something that is uniform, nonuniform

. . . . . . . . . E.g. refrigerator with freezer, moist cold bin for veggies, dry cold bin for meat, etc.

. . . . . . "Assymetry": make something that is symmetric, assymetric

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make a round rod have a flat part so a knob can turn it without slipping

. . . . . . "Merging": assemble similar objects into a larger assembly

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make a network of PCs

. . . . . . . . . E.g. 3 wheels more stable than 2 more stable than 1

. . . . . . . . . You can get emergent properties!

. . . . . . "Universality": make one thing do more than one thing

. . . . . . . . . E.g. pencil can erase, store, attach as well as write

. . . . . . "Nested Doll": (like those Russian dolls)

. . . . . . . . . E.g. set of measuring spoons

. . . . . . "Anti-weight": counter heaviness with flotation

. . . . . . . . . E.g. non-sinking boats; balloons; airplane wings and boat hydrofoils

. . . . . . "Preliminary anti-action": counter bad effects of good things somehow

. . . . . . . . . E.g. lead aprons at the dentist

. . . . . . . . . E.g. slow-release medications

. . . . . . "Preliminary action": do something to an object before it is needed

. . . . . . . . . E.g. put glue on paper before selling it - stickers! Tape!

. . . . . . . . . E.g. sterilize surgical instruments for next time - autoclaves, etc.

. . . . . . "Beforehand cushioning": have backup systems incorporated in case of failure

. . . . . . . . . E.g. emergency parachutes, fire escapes, parking brakes

. . . . . . "Equipotentiality": compensate for gravity

. . . . . . . . . E.g. spring-loaded cafeteria dish dispenser

. . . . . . "The other way round": reverse the action; go upside down; make something fixed, movable (or the reverse)

. . . . . . . . . E.g. rotate part instead of tool; treadmills; escalators

. . . . . . "Spheroidality": change from flat or angular surfaces to curved

. . . . . . . . . E.g. domes and arches; ball-point pens instead of quills

. . . . . . "Dynamics": make it movable or flexible

. . . . . . . . . E.g. adjustable car seats; medical scopes in flexible tubes

. . . . . . "Partial or excessive actions": Do a little too much or too little, then fix

. . . . . . . . . E.g. put a bit too much on your plate, then leave a little; almost fill your tank, then top off

. . . . . . "Another dimension": use the 3rd dimension or 4th, etc.

. . . . . . . . . E.g. 3D TV; add wings to car; 2-sided screen; double toothbrush; dump truck

. . . . . . "Mechanical vibration": cause oscillation/vibration

. . . . . . . . . E.g. electric hedge trimmer/carving knife; gall stone destruction; ultrasonic neurostimulation

. . . . . . "Periodic action": keep repeating

. . . . . . . . E.g. hitting nail with hammer; warbling siren

. . . . . . "Continuity of useful action": eliminate breaks

. . . . . . . . . E.g. night light; auto time sharing

. . . . . . "Skipping": do it so fast that harm is averted

. . . . . . . . . E.g. flash freezing; heated ice cream scoop

. . . . . . "Turn Lemons into Lemonade": use bad effect for a good purpose

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make/save money by recycling (reuse blank side; sell cans)

. . . . . . "Feedback": improve performance by examining the effects

. . . . . . . . . E.g. hard to spend money in late spring here; cruise control

. . . . . . "Intermediary": link/separate 2 things with a go-between

. . . . . . . . . E.g. potholder; nailset; shuttle diplomacy

. . . . . . "Self-service": something serves itself

. . . . . . . . . E.g. fertilize with grass clippings; pot liquor to improve flavor

. . . . . . "Copying": save with inexpensive copies

. . . . . . . . . E.g. VR instead of reality; photos; music on CD instead of live, etc.

. . . . . . "Cheap short-lived objects": throw it away afterwards

. . . . . . . . . E.g. paper plates; disposable diapers; anyone remember returnable bottles?

. . . . . . "Mechanics substitution": get rid of moving parts or other objects

. . . . . . . . . E.g. CD instead of vinyl record; acoustic pet fence

. . . . . . "Pneumatics and hydraulics": use gas and liquid instead of solid parts

. . . . . . . . . E.g. gel-filled footwear soles; propane instead of logs

. . . . . . "Flexible shells and thin films": get rid of heavy, solid things

. . . . . . . . . E.g. paper instead of slates; balloons

. . . . . . "Porous materials": make nonporous things, porous

. . . . . . . . . E.g. save weight by making it fluffier

. . . . . . "Color changes": change color or transparency of object or environment

. . . . . . . . . E.g. use red light to see nocturnal critters in a zoo

. . . . . . . . . E.g. use differently colored markers for writing

. . . . . . "Homogeneity": make interacting objects of the same material

. . . . . . . . . E.g. cut diamonds with diamond dust

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make artificial organs out of person's own cells

. . . . . . "Discarding and recovering": it disappears or changes itself

. . . . . . . . . E.g. biodegradable plastic bags; mechanical pencils

. . . . . . "Parameter changes": change properties of a substance

. . . . . . . . . E.g. heat food to cook/kill germs

. . . . . . "Phase transitions":

. . . . . . . . . E.g. freeze liquid center, then dip in warm chocolate

. . . . . . . . . E.g. air conditioning works by vaporizing/condensing a liquid

. . . . . . "Thermal expansion": things expand/contract with temperature

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make thermostats that bend and curve as temperature changes

. . . . . . . . . . . . We could do this in this class fairly easily!

. . . . . . "Strong oxidants": use oxygen-enrichment

. . . . . . . . . E.g. medical use; match heads and rocket fuel

. . . . . . "Inert atmosphere": use chemically inactive stuff

. . . . . . . . . E.g. store priceless artifacts in argon or nitrogen

. . . . . . . . . E.g. add filler when making pills so you can pick them up

. . . . . . "Composite materials": use multiple materials in a substance

. . . . . . . . . E.g. fiberglass; reinforced concrete

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Homework 5

Prediction Markets: Tapping the Wisdom of Groups
(Due Tues. 10/22, which is one week from now)

Recall that prediction markets try to combine peoples' best judgments using a financial incentive to make sure the judgments really are the best they can make. The topic is timely: the blog entry with the lecture on prediction markets is the first posting to the course blog that has resulted in comments from outside. There is also an academic journal that started in 2007 which is devoted to scholarly examination of prediction markets, their structure, how well they work, etc.

This HW will hopefully be fun, and will help you gain a hands-on understanding of how prediction markets work.

1) (22.5 pts.) Let's assume you have $1,000 to invest in prediction markets. Naturally, you want to make more money, meaning that when you sell your best judgments you get more than the $1,000 you invested. Identify a prediction market company that you want to pretend invest in. We looked at www.intrade.com in class but there are others. Furthermore, www.intrade.com has both a set of real markets where you can invest (or some might claim gamble) real money, and a practice market site where you can invest pretend money. You can pretend invest in the real market without signing up for a login, or you can make a login account with them and use the practice market. Or you can find another prediction market other than intrade.com. The one thing you cannot do is open a real account (as part of this HW) because this course does not endorse, or suggest you to spend real money on, any particular company! For the next question let's assume you are making pretend use of intrade's set of real markets.

2) (22.5 pts.) Find 10 prediction markets that you are interested in or know more about than most others. For example, you might pick the prediction market for whether 2009 will be one of the 5 hottest years on record, the prediction market for whether Michael Jackson's death will result in homicide charges, and some other eight. In fact there are dozens and dozens if not hundreds of markets they have easily accessible from their Web site. Make a list them.

3) (22.5 pts) For each of the 10 markets, decide whether the current probability shown on the graph is higher or lower than your best judgment. List the ones for which you judge the current probability to be too low.

4) Invest your $1,000 in the ones you feel are currently too low, as follows.
  • a. (3.5 pts.) Pick one of the markets. Say which one
  • b. (3.5 pts.) Figure out the price of a single contract (a contract is a little like a share of stock). That price is: (the probability in percentage points) x ($0.10). So if the probability on the graph is 65%=0.65, then a single contract will cost you 65 x $0.10, or $6.50, to buy. Give this price in your HW.
  • c. (3.5 pts.) Decide how many contracts to buy (remember you have $1,000 but will want to spread that over a number of different markets). Note the number in your HW.
  • d. (3.5 pts.) Figure out the total amount you are investing in this market. State this.
  • e. (8.5 pts.) Subtract that from $1,000 to find out how much you have left to invest in the other markets. Then go through the above steps again using another market. Repeat until you have invested all of the $1,000 in the markets you have chosen to invest in.

5) (10 pts., to be assigned toward the end of the semester. 10 if you make money, but only 5 if you lose money, sorry!) You may sell any of your contracts at any time during the semester, and buy any new contracts you like with the money you got from selling (or just hang on to the money if you prefer). You are not required to do this, if you just want to keep the same contracts. To sell, just see what the contracts you have are worth, using the graphs at the company Web site, and pretend you've sold them. Keep track of what you do by editing your blog entry for this HW. Toward the end of the semester I will ask everyone to sell everything and we'll see how much money you've made or lost!

NOTE: the focus above is on markets where the probability is too low. If the probability is too high, it is possible to bid a lower price, and the company will automatically buy the contracts if the probability goes down enough to match your bid. But that is outside the scope of this HW.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Social wisdom: prediction markets

Putting your money where your mouth is


People make predictions all the time

. . . about other peoples' reactions

. . . . . . ability to predict the effect of your action on others is useful

. . . . . . you need a theory of mind

. . . . . . you're in a game theory scenario

. . . . . . data shows population density could be the major cause of human brain size


Human brain. Credits: Patrick J. Lynch, medical illustrator; C. Carl Jaffe, MD, cardiologist. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/




Chimpanzee brain. Credits: Gaetan Lee; tilt corrected by Kaldari. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/


. . . . . . . . . this is the social competition theory of human brain genesis (ref.: Bailey & Geary, Hominid Brain Evolution: Testing Climatic, Ecological, and Social Competition Models Human Nature, vol. 20, no. 1, Mar. 2009, pp. 67-79. )http://www.springerlink.com/content/13t74x04552g5148/fulltext.html

. . . . . . so the need to predict may explain why we're human!

. . . about the weather



Credits: Don Amaro from Madeira Islands, Portugal, upload by Herrick 17:17, 4 December 2007 (UTC). Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/



Waterspout. Credits: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/bigs/wea00308.jpg. 1969 September 10. Photographer: Dr. Joseph Golden, NOAA. Public domain.
. . . . . . The National Weather Service is a large and technical gov't agency devoted to prediction using large computers, etc.
. . . . . . It's not perfect but it's much better than nothing

. . . . . . Group wisdom can be used, e.g. in bet-oriented ways
. . . . . . Will the average global temperature for 2009 be among the highest 5 years recorded?

. . . . . . . . . for about 50 "points" ($5) you can bet it will (or won't) and win $10 (or lose)

. . . about sports

Tim Henman serving at Wimbledon, 2005. Credits: Photo by Spiralz; license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

. . . . . . Sports betting has a long history
. . . . . . People want to predict future outcomes and will pay to do it!
. . . . . . An honest "bookmaker" will offer odds that result in equal payoff regardless of outcome
. . . . . . . . . (But why would you think a bookmaker is honest?)
. . . . . . By equalizing the payoffs, the true odds according to group wisdom become evident
. . . About politics
. . . . . . During election season, media and candidates all try to predict
. . . . . . . . . Some of it you don't hear about
. . . . . . polling, trend analysis, and sociological analysis are big
. . . . . . . . . predictions markets have been claimed to do better
. . . about corporate stocks

. . . . . . The stock market is a "leading economic indicator"
. . . . . . Economists pay special attention to leading indicators

If someone asked you to invent a way to collect group predictive wisdom, what would you likely come up with?

. . . Maybe a Delphi-like method
. . . Probably not prediction markets
. . . . . . An early design for prediction markets appears in The Shockwave Rider, by John Brunner, 1975
. . . . . . His term was Delphi Pool
. . . . . . General idea: putting their money at stake makes people generate better predictions
. . . Terrorism and prediction markets
. . . . . . DARPA's PAM (Policy Analysis Market) permitted a prediction market for terrorist attacks
+ we might have forwarning
- terrorists might buy predictions, then make them come true to make money!
. . . . . . In 2003 2 senators found out, PAM was cancelled, and a DARPA program director resigned
. . . . . . . . . not clear that terrorist predictions were ever traded on it
An example prediction market
. . . see www.intrade.com, check short video, and look at the site
. . . HW will be sent tomorrow, will be to invest pretend money in a prediction market, and to research and compare prediction markets and the Delphi method

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Delphi Method II

Today



Finish the "Delphi method" (next time - prediction markets)

. . . Recall each remaining student will extract the wisdom of the group by using the Delphi Method on the class

. . . . . . (I will help a little as needed)

. . . Each person will also have a chance to be the recorder



But first let's reflect a bit

. . . What are the differences between how we're doing it for practice and how it would be done "professionally"?

. . . What are the "so whats?" of these differences?



Ambiguity in the question

. . . Often, public parks have rules that make them fun places for everyone

. . . Here is one proposed rule:

All dogs must be kept on a leash

. . . What does it really say and how can we fix it??



And before we start, a figure or two...
Recall from last time:

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)












Source: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html

. . . Entire books have been written on the Delphi Method






Homework 4

Short HW due Monday 9/14/09 (in 5 days, next class)

1. If your Delphi question was done in class on Wednesday 9/9 (i.e. "today"), then find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median.

On the other hand, if your question was discussed in class last Wednesday 9/2 (i.e. before Labor day vacation), then analyze the question you asked from the standpoint of clarity and ambiguity. What are the different ways it could be interpreted by different people or the confusions they might have in trying to answer it? If you were to run the Delphi method again, would you re-word your question? If so, how?

2. Recall that a project is part of the course, and this project will grow step by step throughout the semester. In other words, you will keep adding to it as we go along, so that in the end it will be a piece of work you can be proud of! Make up a tentative plan for your term project, which will be a paper, software system, combination, skit or musical performance or painting (if you are a fine arts major), or whatever it is. You may analyze the same topic as you used for your Delphi exercise, or change topics but include the Delphi results as an appendix or supplemental report. Also, answer the question, "What would be a good thing to do next on this project?"

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Homework 3

NOTE: this is due before class next Wednesday! That way we can apply it directly in class.

We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.

1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will hopefully work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.

3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?