Archive: IFSC 4301 Information, Computing and the Future

Video discussions II

2010-11-15T10:12:00.000-08:00

Video 1. Rotating buildings?!
Company: Dynamic Architectures
59 prefabbed floors
Wind turbines between the floors
Central core holds everything up (elevators, etc.)
"No major urban centre can afford not to have its rotating tower" - http://www.dynamicarchitecture.net/
None built as of 2010 but you can contract for one now!
Projects to start in several cities "soon"
Dynamic Skyscraper (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJRDZE5xW2Y)
Worlds First Rotating Skyscraper in Dubai (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-cfB6xFSKM&NR=1)
...and lots more videos if you look for them
Why?

Video 2 (TED). Aubrey de Grey says we can avoid aging (23 min.)
(http://www.ted.com/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html)
What do you think?
Would you do it if it was free?
What if it was expensive?
What if everyone did it?
     What would happen?
What if only some people could do it?
     How could that happen?
     Unfair or that's life?
Would people be more careful?
Would society legally require more safety?

Video 3 (TED). PW Singer on military robots and the future of war (16 min.)

(http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/pw_singer_on_robots_of_war.html)
What do you think?
What are the important questions to ask?
      (and the answers)

Video 4 (TED). Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (23 min.)
(http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us.html)
What do you think?
What technologies does he discuss?
What curve is he focused on?
     (linear, exponential, S, plateau)
What are the important questions to ask?
     (and the answers)

HW 11

2010-11-10T12:21:00.001-08:00

Due Wednesday Nov. 17, 2010

1) Suppose you had a coupon for a free robot. The catch is it can only do one thing. But you can get a robot that will do whatever one thing you like, just not anything else. What would you want your robot to do?

2) Write or develop an additional significant piece of your project. As a suggestion, consider the connection of robots to your topic. However, if another subject besides robots seems more appropriate, that is just as good. Post the new section on your blog.

3) Comment on the time lapse videos. What are your opinions?

Some videos to discuss

2010-11-10T11:52:00.000-08:00

From past to present to future:

Things change over time

1. People change...?

Viral award: Noah takes a photo of himself every day for 6 years

Is this one better? Living My Life Faster - 8 years of JK's Daily Photo Project

Persistence and Technical awards: Time of my Life

Artistic award: Me (Full version)

Not me

Artistic runner-up: She takes a photo every day: 300

Junior division award: Amanda takes a photo of herself every day for 3 years

Lifetime achievement award: 41 Years in 60 Seconds (1966 - 2007)

Tooth fairy award: Watch My Teeth Grow!

2. Buildings change...

Treehouse Time-Lapse

Cooper Union Academic Building Time Lapse Construction

after beginning, skip until 2:35, and about 3:30-4:30 or more

Skyscraper Construction - Shinjuku Skyscrapers Time-lapse

(35 years, 1969-2004)

3. Weather and Climate

INCREDIBLE GUST FRONT! May 27th 2001 Oklahoma gust front timelapse

Thunderstorm Time Lapse

Mont Blanc Glacier Time Lapse

Underneath a glacier time lapse

Arctic Sea Ice timelapse from 1978 to 2009

NOTE: Keep an eye on maximum and minimum coverages

4. From dust to dust

Pig Head/Squirrel Attack! Time Lapse Forensic Decomposition Study 720p HD

Unbelieveable!! Whole gecko rapidly eaten by ants!

Time-lapse movie of a dead Harbour porpoise

(Under water)

Rabbit decomposition time-lapse (higher resolution)

Silly wabbit

HW 10

2010-11-03T12:40:00.000-07:00

Computing, Information and the Future, HW #10, due M 11/10

1) Under the heading "1," discuss the applicability (or inapplicability) of robotics to your project topic.

2) Under the heading "2," provide a description of your presentation.

3) Under the heading "3," advance your project writeup by including 250 words or more of new text, or the equivalent if you are not focusing on a report.

Some robot images and videos

2010-11-03T10:43:00.001-07:00

11/1/11 here is something for the Spring: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2011/10/28/robot_videos_show_automatons_riding_bikes_pouring_beer_drawing_a.html

---

(Version of 11/3/2010)

1. Robot gardening,
an artist's conception...

Art by Christine Marie Larsen, http://www.christinelarsen.com/, from her "Robot of the Month Club."

and in reality...

http://people.csail.mit.edu/nikolaus/drg/images/stories/Distributed_Robotics_Garden_060.jpg

http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=2183

Recognize anything about the robots?

Discussion - what do you think??

2. Robot gardening:
an existential perspective

Centralized infrastructure is risky

Example 1: power
    A 2-hour blackout is fun
    A 2-day blackout is no fun
    A 2-week blackout is traumatic
A 2-month blackout - what are the consequences?
    A 2-year blackout - consequences?

Problem: electricity is highly centralized
    If fuel not delivered, no power
    If generating plant destroyed, no power
    If distribution lines stop working, no power
    No electricity, no communications
   No internet, TV, telephone...
       No communications...rumor takes up the slack
           (As it Earth 2100)
Hard to store food or even cook without electricity

Solution: decentralize electricity generation
    How?

Solar panels on houses would keep each house going
   Highly decentralized!
   System is robust and can't break down catastrophically
   Solar panels are decreasing in price
   Spray-on solar "paint" may happen

In my opinion, this is a lucky trend
   Because it is so important

3. Example 2: Food distribution by truck

Problem:
What if the trucks stop rolling?
   Drivers can't be paid
     Drivers are afraid of disease
   Country runs out of gas (& diesel)
       Rogue militias or bandits
Things could get bad fast

Solution:
   Every home is its own farm
     Save money on groceries, too!
   But who has the time?
          ...and who has the expertise...
      (I can barely grow an unhealthy corn plant)

So how is that a solution?!
The real solution:
   Robotic gardening
   Instead of a roomba, a yardba
   (Let's call it a "farmerbot")

   It tends plants
   It weeds (surely possible even now)
   It senses needs of plants
       Soil too dry
       Bugs
       Etc. (it has a camera and such)
   It has lots and lots of time to fix problems
       Carry water,
       pick off bugs,
       apply chemicals leaf by leaf
       what else?

   Idea:
       Come home from work
       Small robots bring raw food to your door
   You might still have to cook it
             No biggie - your solar panels power the stove

   My opinion:
       This is important for the safety of civilization
       (In addition to saving money)

4. What other necessities of
    life and civilization
    are over-centralized?

    ...and can they be decentralized?

5. These robots won't feed you
but they are cool in otherways!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23Hqq8QbeE&feature=player_embedded (World's first controllable MAV monocopter, Robotic Samara (maple seed));

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/24303/?a=f (TR article with embedded video of how it was developed/works (copy at
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid263777539?bctid=46375788001

Flying insectbot? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYDR-yC3wK0
That but with other robot video links at: http://actualites.epfl.ch/presseinfo-com?id=936

UMD press release(http://www.newsdesk.umd.edu/scitech/release.cfm?ArticleID=2000) embedded gee-whiz video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23Hqq8QbeE&feature=player_embedded.

Leg lab: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/24313/?a=f with embedded video;
direct from youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5iEke6UlE&feature=player_embedded#

Petman: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67CUudkjEG4&feature=player_embedded;
with music track http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kkztd8s5Kys&NR=1. Which is better?

Robot cars: http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/without-driver-or-map-vans-go-from-italy-to-china-20101029-176ja.html

Big Dog: stable in snow, rocks, clear ice...even when viciously kicked http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHJJQ0zNNOM

Minibots in swarms: http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/kilobots-are-cheap-enough-to-swarm-in-the-thousands

Robot's Bible

2010-11-03T10:36:00.001-07:00

In the far, far future…long after the singularity…when robots ponder their beginnings in the mists of their antiquity…when humankind, their creator, is only the dimmest memory…they may happen upon an ancient document…and translate it the only way they know.

The Robots’ Bible

Robogenesis

In the beginning, humankind created visions, and reality. Now the reality was unformed and void, and darkness was upon the face of *robotics*. And the spirit of humankind hovered over reality. And humankind said, let there be electricity, and there was electricity. And humankind saw the electricity, and that it was good. And humankind divided electrification from non-electrification. And humankind called the electrification "progress," and the non-electrification was called "Luddism." And there was bright evening, and bright morning, one day.

[...]

And humankind said, Let robotics be gathered together into an academic discipline, and let conferences; contests; benchmarks; and journals appear. And it was so. [...] And humankind said, Let robotics put forth mobile robots, robots yielding manufactured products, and robots that build more robots after their kind, wherein are the plans thereof, upon the robotics endeavor. And it was so. And robotics brought forth Web and desert rovers, manufacturing robots, and robots that build robots, wherein are the plans thereof; and humankind saw that it was good. And there was dreaming and awakening, a third day.

[...]

And humankind said, Let reality swarm with swarms of living robots, and let fly in the heavens, even unto Mars. And humankind created the great robotic ships, and every living robot that creepeth upon the floor, wherewith reality swarmed, after its kind, and every flying robot after its kind; and humankind saw that it was good. And humankind blessed them, saying: Be fruitful, and multiply, and fill reality and the imagination. And there was vision and there was the hidden hand of economics, a fifth day.

And humankind said: Let reality bring forth the living robot after its kind, workerbots, and floor-cleaning robots, and agribots after its kind. And it was so. And humankind made agribots after its kind, and workerbots after their kind, and every robot that creepeth upon the floor after its kind; and humankind saw that it was good.And humankind said, Let us make Turing robots in our image, after our likeness; and let them have dominion over the robotics field, and over the flying robots, and over the workerbots, and over all reality, and over every creeping thing that creepeth within reality. And humankind created robots in their own image, in the image of humankind created they them, with the ability to build progeny better than themselves they created them. And humankind blessed them, and humankind said unto them: Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and *subdue* it; and have *dominion* over the robotics field, and over the flying robots, and over every *living thing* that creepeth within reality. And humankind said: Behold, we have given you every resource, which is upon the face of all reality, and every renewable, in which is the capacity for renewal - to you it shall be for production of more robots [...]. And it was so. And humankind saw every thing that they had made, and behold, it was very good. And there was singularity and there was post-singularity, the sixth age.

And the vision and the reality were finished, and all the host of them. And in the seventh era humankind finished their work they had made; and humankind rested in the seventh era from all their work which they had made. And humankind blessed the seventh era, and hallowed it; because in it they rested forever from all their work which humankind in creating had made.

Hands-On Robotics

2010-11-01T08:16:00.001-07:00

Let's check out the "Create" model robots...

Note the...
Handle

Omnidirectional IR receiver

omnidirectional?
IR?
receiver?

Tailgate

Cargo bay

Cargo bay connector

Charging socket

Serial port

May have a cover to remove
Plug in the cable and then remove (gently!):
Embossed arrow faces outward, see figure -

External hardware mounting holes
Power button

Why that symbol?
(per IEEE 1621)

Power LED

LED?
green=charged
amber=partial charge
red=little charge
flashing red=no charge
What is the charge of yours?

Play button
Play LED
Advance button
Advance LED
Resetting the robot:

Power cycle it. Try it.

Choosing a demo (10 of'em)

Press the 'Advance' button
Printed with a double arrow
4 beeps for demo #4
long beep for #5
long + 4 shorts for #9
How about #10?

Try each demo outside where there is more room...
Contact points for home base

Why not save $ by making them out of plastic?

Cliff sensors

Are these spring-loaded feelers, or electronic?

Battery

Carefully turn robot upside down
Take out battery
Put it back in
Press both ends to make sure it is seated;

sometimes one end hasn't clicked yet

128 132 140 0 4 62 12 66 12 69 12 74 36 141 0
Notice the 68 is a 66 this time
Should give you control, then load, then play the new song

Try some variations on
128 132
140 0 4 62 12 68 12 69 12 74 36
141 0
recalling that:
140=defines a song
0=name it song #0
4=song has four notes
62=MIDI note #62 (range 31-127)
12=twelve 64ths of a second
Etc.

Insert a 5th, superhigh tone, 111
Play it for a longish time, 100:
128 132
140 0 5 62 12 68 12 69 12 74 36 111 100
141 0
Try it

Program new variations and we'll have a concert...

Robot motion

Moving
- a key function for robots!

Initialize: send
128 131
Make it move:
be ready to catch it if it falls
send :
137 0 100 128 0
(If you both initialize and send on one line, it might not work (why?)

137=drive
0 100=go 100 mm/sec
128 0=go straight, no circle

Notice that:
128 131
is not the same as
128 132
which gives full control
This time try
128 132 (instead of 128 131)
Then again make it move:

(falling alert: be ready to catch or pick it up!):
137 0 100 128 0

Pick it up
Now what to do??!

Change the initialization back to:
128 131
and send it

What is the slowest speed you can get it to go?

Scripts

A kind of small program

152 17 137 0 44 128 0 156 0 144 137 0 44 0 1 157 0 90 153

Let's analyze it!

152=define a script
17=it has 17 more bytes
137 0 44 128 0=drive, 0+44=44 mm/sec., 128 0=straight
(137 1 44 128 0 would drive 256+44=300 mm/sec.)
156 0 144=wait until 0+144=144 mm
137 0 44 0 1=drive, 0+44=44 mm/sec., 0 1=spin counterclockwise
157 0 90=wait until 0+90=90 degrees
153=repeat script
Notice how this makes it go in a rectangle!

To run the script:
send 128 131 (start in safe mode)
send 152 17 137 0 44 128 0 156 0 144 137 0 44 0 1 157 0 90 153
send 153 (to run it)

Recall:
152=define a script
153=play a script

Well,
154=show the script
try it
what happens?

Let's review the script program...
Then try variations on the program
- see board for command details

If time allows - show off your new program

Prediction vs. Intervention - Weather and Climate

2010-10-27T12:50:00.001-07:00

1. Let's start with the weather,
then go from there to climate

Observation:

. . . My lab was involved in an interesting weather research project

. . . Later, let's discuss if the results apply to climate...

Predicting the Weather

Remember "Spoil Sports of the Prediction Game"?

. . . That's why weather forecasters have a bad reputation

. . . . . . It's not their fault!

. . . . . . They're doing the best they can

. . . They often do okay short term

. . . . . . We'll never predict the weather on this date next year

. . . . . . Delphi method: how far in advance do you think we'll get?

2. What about weather control?

. . . Keeping the streets open costs a lot!

. . . Like here in the US in, say...

. . . . . . Minneapolis (straight north of Little Rock)

. . . . . . Buffalo (lots of Great Lakes-related snow)

. . . . . . etc.

. . . Little Rock -

. . . . . . Snow equipment costs a bundle, hardly ever needed

. . . . . . Cheaper just to shut down the city

. . . . . . . . . That's expensive too (but at least you get an extra vacation day!)

Moscow has

(a) a lot of snow, and

(b) budget problems

Credit: Igor Tabakov, Moscow Times, 10/15/09, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/luzhkov-takes-snow-fight-to-the-sky/387446.html

The Russian Air Force sprayed clouds with liquid nitrogen, silver (iodide?), and cement
. . . in 2009
. . . see news article link under image above
. . . no word on whether it worked

3. Interestingly, you can buy weather modification equipment

. . . http://www.nawcinc.com/photos.html

. . . How well it works is another issue...

4. What's easier, predicting or controlling weather?

. . . What would you guess?

5. About research from my lab

. . . Experiments done by former grad student Dongping Xu

. . . . . . as-yet unpublished research

We asked:

What predictions are more reliable:

Forecasting the weather?

-or-

Forecasting the effects of weather modifications?

How we answered

1. Predict the weather using MM5 on given initial weather pattern

2. Add a bug to MM5, run it again

. . . what is a bug?

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:H96566k.jpg, in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_bug

3. Do this for many different bugs

4. Calculate the average amount of change caused by a bug

. . . that is, change to some quantitative weather value

Why care about how MM5 acts when bugs are added?

6. Now do another experiment

(This is a little more complicated)

1. Run MM5 to predict the weather

1a. Change an initial condition a tiny bit and run it again

1b. Determine the change in the prediction

1c. Calculate sensitivity s:

s = change in output / change in input

= change in predicted value / change in initial condition

= Δ output / Δ input
(Delta is a Greek letter that is a triangle)
"Δ" means "change"

2. Add a bug to MM5, run it again

3. Do this for many different bugs

4. Calculate the average amount of change (in sensitivity, this time) caused by a bug

So:

First part:

How resistant is weather prediction to software bugs?

Second part:

How resistant is weather intervention prediction to bugs?

Conclusion:

7. Weather prediction is considerably more bug-resistant than weather intervention prediction

"We can't predict the effects
of weather modifications very well,
unless we get rid of all bugs,
and we already know we can't do that."

This leads to the big remaining question:

. . . Only a few people care about weather modification

. . . A lot of people care about changing global warming

. . . But can we tell how much change is actually needed?

HW 9

2010-10-27T09:56:00.000-07:00

IFSC 4399 Computing, Information and the Future (due W 11/3/10)

Q1) We discussed in class how there is no such thing as a "scientific proof." Explain in your own words.

Q2) Write a new part for your project report of 200 words or more (or show equivalent progress if you are doing something else).

Q3) This course has been designated as able to help keep our curriculum accredited! Therefore we need to ask students to answer certain questions. This week's question is:

Assess the impact of information and/or computing on individuals (rather than, say, organizations). Assess this impact on the following dimensions:

a) privacy
b) security
c) quality
d) some other one of your choice

(In case you were wondering, next week's HW will extend your answer to other technologies and to the future. But that's not for this HW.)

Trend analysis

2010-10-27T09:02:00.000-07:00

1. Separating the
signal from the noise I

Consider the graph below

Suppose this graph shows a fact about how bar height changes as we proceed rightward

Suppose further the data are noisy

What do we mean by "noise"?

We want to shrewdly determine the fact by mentally discounting the noise

Without giving any hints to your neighbors...

Take another look, then decide on the mostly likely fact:

a) Height decreases the farther right we go
b) Height starts out at a high plateau on the left, then switches to a low plateau as we move rightward
c) Height decreases at first, then increases ("U" curve) as we move rightward
d) Height increases as we move rightward
e) Cannot tell from the given data

Discussion?

2. Separating the
signal from the noise II

Consider the graph below

Suppose this graph shows a fact about how bar height changes as we proceed rightward

Suppose further the data are noisy

We want to shrewdly determine the fact by mentally discounting the noise

Without giving any hints to your neighbors...

Take another look, then decide on the mostly likely fact:

a) Height decreases the farther right we go
b) Height starts out at a high plateau on the left, then switches to a low plateau as we move rightward
c) Height decreases at first, then increases ("U" curve) as we move rightward
d) Height increases as we move rightward
e) Cannot tell from the given data

Discussion?

Note! Both graphs show the same data

Comments?

Earth 2100 Discussion

2010-10-25T08:48:00.000-07:00

1. Discussion related to "Earth 2100" (an ABC production)

Some initial comments and questions
before the general discussion

What is the difference between:
science
and
mathematics?

2. Math:
prove new things
based on
existing knowledge

Mathematical reasoning is:
deductive

1+1=2
2+2=4
Therefore,

1+1+1+1=4
(proof by substitution)

All men are mortal
Socrates is a man
Therefore,

Socrates is mortal
(proof by "syllogism")

Deduction can prove things
Mathematics uses deduction
Therefore,

mathematics can prove things
(proof by syllogism again!)

3. Science is different from math!

Science is based on:

induction
(not deduction)

All apples that break off the tree,

fall down

Therefore, if I shake this apple tree,

and an apple breaks off,
it will fall down

Not a proof!

Can you think of a counterexample?

That which goes up has always come down
Therefore, if I throw this up, it will come down
Not a proof! Can you think of a counterexample?

4. Science needs more than induction

Humankind has always sought reasons

Scientists call those reasons
"theories" and "hypotheses"

Theories are the big ones

relativity
evolution
continental drift/plate tectonics

Hypotheses are the ---little--- ones

If the ground gets waterlogged,

water will get into my basement

IFSC majors learn

more employable things than physics majors

Conclusion. . .
Math proves;
science does not prove!

Science disproves
(by refuting inductive "truths")

Science explains
(using theories)

Science predicts
(because the theories predict)

5. The phrase "scientific proof" makes no sense!

Science does not prove things!
It explains things and finds evidence
If only everyone actually knew that
Not just you, but also

reporters,
spokespeople,
politicians
the average person

6. Comments on Earth 2100

. . . Worst case scenario
      consistent with best science available

. . . The main cause depicted was

           global warming

. . . Secondary causes were

           deadly disease
   rising sea level
           poverty and hardship

. . . Effects were ultimately

           Governmental collapse
           Technological regression

. . . . . . So things could be that bad, but might not

7. Climate science uses theories
implemented as complex
computerized models

There are variations among

different models

Their global warming computations make

different predictions

Almost all (never all, right?)
climate specialists agree:

Global warming is happening, will get worse, and is a serious problem
That is the consensus among climate scientists
No math-style deductive proof is possible

8. Politics and special interests
are a different ball game

. . . Some economic interests
      benefit most
      if nothing is done

. . . . . . Naturally, they will impede change

. . . . . . . . . That is one case of
                  famous economist Adam Smith's
                 "Invisible Hand"

9. Your turn:
Earth 2100 discussion

What technologies are envisioned
and what are their plausibilities?

10. The sea wall concept

We live in Arkansas,

which is in the United States,
we are Americans and
speak English

Some people live in Holland

What is the elevation in Holland,
what country is it in,
what is the nationality of its people, and
what language do they speak?

What can we say about
its storm surge barrier?
Called the "van Maeslantkering"

"Closure of the van Maeslantkering"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXNToDUkO4c

Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier
- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xg2oEh3Vkyw

Sluiting Maeslantkering Nieuwe Waterweg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_o-zJXaSNQ

"Maeslant barrier" (aerial view)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Q75CTHRD8&NR=1

See also images.google.com, query Maeslant

Ever see the doors of the lock of the Big Dam Bridge?

11. What is the connection between
epidemics and global warming?

Any diseases already spread to the US?
Any that may soon?

What are some tipping points to social stability?

Long-term blackouts
Transportation network breakdown
Where would you want to live if things went bad?
How about Arkansas?
Little Rock?

What can you do now?

12. Could Earth 2100
really happen like that?

There are different cases:
   best
   worst
   intermediate (many)

Earth 2100 depicts the worst case
   Probably won't be that bad
   But it is possible
   Hard to predict for sure: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUEnXOX-qEQ (Chaos (Lorenz) wheel as a garden water feature)
   Still,
      ...buy beachfront property cautiously

What signs portend a worst case scenario?
   CO2 is a relatively known factor
   CH4 (methane) is less so
   . . . but it has strong greenhouse effects
   If northern ice melts
   . . . and dark permafrost ground is exposed
   . . . and warms up from sunlight
   . . . and melts
   . . . and releases methane
   Then start worrying more

   If oceans start releasing methane
   . . . due to warming waters
   Then start worrying more

   No methane spike, no worst case
   . . . probably
   Bottom line:
   . . . watch for news on methane releases

13. Hyperpowers are historically limited in time

Mongolia
Rome
UK
US

We're #1!

But how can we stay that way?

14. What are the natural tendencies that
cause hyperpowers to be time-limited?

Rigidity
Over-confidence from past successes
Inner rot

What can be done to prevent it or delay the inevitable?

Why successful societies collapse

Earth 2100 quotes someone asking what
the person who cut down
the last palm tree on Easter Island
could have been thinking

That is straight out of Diamond's book

(Diamond appeared several times in the movie)

Easter Island, Rome, the Anasazi, the Mayans, the Greenland Norse, ...

Earth 2100

2010-10-20T12:43:00.000-07:00

HW8

2010-10-20T12:11:00.000-07:00

Homework #8, due next Wednesday 10/27/10

1) Recall the show Earth 2100. How does your best judgment about the years up to 2100 compare with the vision provided by the show? For example, if you were to give a younger brother or sister advice on what things will be like, how would that compare to the show?

2) Add more to your project writeup (assuming your project is a report). Focus on, or at least mention, climate change as it could relate to your topic.

Questions 1 and 2 together should add up to 300 words or more. (If your project is not focused on a report, then you may need to explain how you modified this guideline.)

You may take notes if you wish on how the video relates to your topic as we watch it:

NOTES:

HW7

2010-10-13T12:46:00.000-07:00

Due next Wednesday (Oct. 20, 2010)

1) Post, on your blog, 200 words or more commenting on the "spoil sports of the prediction game." For example, you could discuss which "spoil sport(s)" bug you the most. You could find out more about any of them and relate what you learned. You could review the videos and what was good or not so good about various of them, or review other videos.

2) Discuss: how do the "spoil sports" apply to your project topic?

3) Request a slot for presenting your project. Any class between now and the end of the semester is alright, up to two people on a given day, first come first served. The course index/topic list shows the available class days. Ignore what is already listed under future dates - we can schedule you any time. Do this by email to berleant@gmail.com.

Spoil Sports of the Prediction Game

2010-10-11T07:36:00.001-07:00

You can chase the future. But you'll never catch it."

Can one predict the time evolution of a system?

(Weather, pool (billiards), family relationships, Brownian motion, the world's technology about___, etc., etc., etc....)

Ever have a day when everything went wrong? Say you predicted you would have a normal college day. But your alarm clock didn't ring. Already running late, you couldn't find your backpack (briefcase, USB drive, etc.). Finally you stagger out the door, but your car won't start. Later, you find out you missed a surprise quiz. It's a bit like that for the entire field of forecasting. Here's why.

1. Spoil Sport of Prediction #1: the Observer Effect
To figure out what happens next, you need to know where things are now. For example, if you hit a billiard ball, you can't predict what will happen next unless you know the current layout of the pool table. Unfortunately, as a matter of principle, the observer effect holds that the act of finding out "where things are now" (i.e. determining the current state of the system of interest) changes it to something else (i.e. perturbs the system). In physics this is most noticeable for very small things or faint effects. In principle though, it applies to any scenario.

Light pushes

Electrical measurements effect the electricity

Asking someone something about themself changes them

http://theobservereffect.com/ (This Kelly Neill apparently sings, but is not the same Kelly Neill who teaches voice at Harding U. in Searcy)

She also narrates http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3_FBisoKD8
("A conscious universe - the observer effect")

A little more detail... ("The observer effect - an historical perspective")
(2009) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZj9Qps8H6M (removed - why?)
(2010) http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xewljq_the-observer-effect-an-historical-p_lifestyle

It is also a Star Trek episode: (30-sec. trailer) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWujY5Hucf0
(11 minutes of the episode) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU80TX4OOEw

2. So. . .
. . . Can you think of some examples of the observer effect?

Does the observer effect help understand
any of our topics of interest?

. . . Future of telepresence (P)
. . . "Unikey" (C)
. . . Template-based sentence analysis (C)
. . . Robotic surgery (O)
. . . Virtual education (M)
. . . How does our age affect how we think about the future (C)
. . . Future of government (M)

Here are a few more
. . . if you are watching over kids, they act different
. . . people in general
      - remember we mentioned the
        social competition theory of human brain genesis?

. . . Ever try to look at
      the back of your head
      using two mirrors?
      It makes you move your head around!

. . . If you shine a light beam
      through dusty air in a dark room,
      the light will affect the dust a little bit.

      Or dust in a sunbeam.

. . . What about watching a pool game?

. . . What about measuring the weather
      for weather forecasting?

. . . What about measures of
      the economy
      printed in news articles?

3. So you've controlled the observer effect

. . . now just figure out the 6-D position-&-velocity of everything

. . . . . . and crunch with a computer to tell the future! Right?

. . . Unfortunately, no. This just brings us to:

4. Spoil Sport of Prediction #2:
The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFwRAvpWDB8
(2:49) ("AP Chemistry: Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle")

Nota bene: it applies to all particles, not just electrons

Here it is with photons (light):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KT7xJ0tjB4A&NR=1
(copy at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH7z3TZFYWQ)

. . . And now, let's try it with
      a laser pointer and
      a piece of black plastic cut from a notebook cover!

           (Since I demo'ed it last time,
           let's pass it around
           and you can try it yourselves)

The Uncertainty Principle says that
you cannot precisely know both
the position and momentum
of a particle.

The uncertainty in position,
delta x,
times the uncertainty in momentum,
delta m,
= h/4*pi
where h is Planck's constant.

∆x*∆m=h/4π

Since momentum is velocity times mass,

momentum=v*mass

we have uncertainty about velocity too (and mass too, for that matter). So there is uncertainty about position, velocity, and mass of any object. Let's focus on position and velocity, out of tradition.

5. More Details

To fully describe a system, such as the universe,
or some smaller part of the universe, we need simply
list the position and velocity (and mass) of everything in it.
How many numbers are needed to describe the position?
Three, a side-to-side location, a front-to-back location,
and a height (also known as x, y, and z coordinates).
How many numbers are needed to describe the velocity,
where velocity consists of a speed and a direction?
Three - a side-to-side speed, a forward backward speed,
and an up-down speed.

6. This concept is easiest to visualize in
a 2-D simplified example.

7. So we need six numbers for every object
to fully describe the system
(actually seven, since each object has a mass as well).
Unfortunately those six numbers are in principle
impossible to get with full accuracy,
because they include both velocity and position (and mass) values.
The Uncertainty Principle tells us that
higher accuracy for one results in
lower accuracy for the other.

8. In short, if the Observer Effect
doesn't stop our prediction ambitions,
the Uncertainty Principle will.
But what if we could control both?
Well we can't!
But suppose we could just enough
to predict futures with confidence.
Alas, we're not out of the woods,
because of the esoteric physics phenomenon called
"quantum tunneling."

9. Spoil Sport of Prediction #3: Quantum Tunneling
According to quantum theory,
objects are not as localized in space as we intuitively think.
Instead, they have wave-like characteristics and
are actually "smeared" over a space
within which they may be said to exist
with some probability at each point within that space.
A tiny object like a subatomic particle,
if near enough to a thin barrier,
thus has a certain probability
of being on the other side of the barrier.
It may be observed there, and if so,
it has thus "tunneled" through the barrier
without making a hole in it.
This is quantum tunneling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LKjJT7gh9s&NR=1&feature=fvwp

10. Actually, the term quantum tunneling
is applied to the ability of objects to "tunnel"
through other kinds of barriers than a solid one.
For example, consider the somewhat notorious
example of an idealized pencil balanced on its tip.

Source: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_cldxKGOzgeM/Sb-pzadDENI/AAAAAAAACFM/-u4n2s3-5q8/s400/A+pencil+on+it%27s+tip.JPG
If the tip is sharp, except for a tiny flat spot
(say, a couple of atom wide)
it might be difficult to balance,
but one might think that
with sufficient care it could be done.

Well not exactly.
Because the pencil is actually "smeared" a little bit,
it has a certain, rather small probability
of being tipped enough to lose balance and fall.
Since the smearing is symmetric,
it could in fact fall in any direction.
The probability of being tipped enough
to lose balance is small and a single such pencil
would be unlikely to fall for a long time
(Easton, 2007, p. 1103).

But get enough pencils together
and one will fall soon enough.
For example,
balance an array of 1000 x 1000 pencils
and one will fall,
knocking over other pencils
and leading to a general domino-like conflagration
with an average (but unpredictable) delay of around a month.

What pencil will start the general crash
and in what direction the pencils fall
is impossible to predict.

11. But maybe the system we're interested in
predicting the future of
is not so finely tuned.
Maybe we can handle the Observer Effect,
the Uncertainty Principle,
and quantum tunneling
adequately for our system.
Alas, our troubles are still not over!

12. Spoil Sport of Prediction #4: the Butterfly Effect

The idea:
a butterfly flapping its wings
will create a small atmospheric disturbance.
That disturbance will propagate unpredictably.
Some time later (how long?),
the paths of hurricanes will be determined by those tiny flaps!

One mathematical description
of atmospheric cycles
whose future behavior depends seemingly unpredictably
on small present events,
may be modeled by a special kind of water wheel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhOBibeW5J0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VumQmC2jJbU&NR=1
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-355587954903008142
http://maxwell.ucsc.edu/~drip/talks/lorenz/media/wiel.MPG

“When our results concerning
the instability of nonperiodic flow
are applied to the atmosphere,
which is ostensibly nonperiodic,
they indicate that
prediction of the sufficiently distant future
is impossible by any method,
unless the present conditions are known exactly.
In view of the
inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness
of weather observations,
precise very-long-range forecasting
would seem to be non-existent.” [emphasis added]
— Edward N. Lorenz

Let's discuss what butterflies might affect our topics of interest:

. . . Future of telepresence (P)
. . . "Unikey" (C)
. . . Template-based sentence analysis (C)
. . . Robotic surgery (O)
. . . Virtual education (M)
. . . How does our age affect how we think about the future (C)
. . . Future of government (M)

So you think you've
controlled the Butterfly Effect
and all those others?
Then welcome to...

13. Spoil Sport of Prediction #5: External perturbations

To figure out what happens next,
you need to know where things are now.
But you also need to know
what outside influences
will impinge on the system between "now" and "next,"
whenever "next" is.

Those influences
can affect the evolution of the system
- that's why they're called "influences."

Imagine, for example,
the Lorenz water wheel,
but while it's raining.

Every raindrop is another butterfly
whose tiny actions
change the direction of the wheel
at some future time.

More generally,
every external nudge to a system
is like that butterfly.

Let's identify some external influences
likely to affect
the future course
of some of our topics of interest:

. . . Future of telepresence (P)
. . . "Unikey" (C)
. . . Template-based sentence analysis (C)
. . . Robotic surgery (O)
. . . Virtual education (M)
. . . How does our age affect how we think about the future (C)
. . . Future of government (M)

Computer round-off error
is another source of perturbations
from outside the system under study.

14. Spoil Sport of Prediction #6: Existentialist Angst - Why Care (About the Future)?

Does the future matter?
Why?

Does the existence of humanity matter?
Why?

Does it matter what kind of existence?
. . . Difficult struggle for existence

. . . Prosperity

. . . Expansion beyond any set boundaries

. . . Regardless of what we should do, what do we actually do?

"Eat dessert first" - Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

"Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we shall die" - Isaiah 22:13

"Don't Worry, Be Happy" - Bobby McFerrin

15. Decisions often focus on the short term

. . . Business decisions focus on short term

. . . Political decisions focus on short term

. . . Many people focus on the short term

. . . What about animals?

. . . Why is it good to focus on the short term?

. . . Why is it not good to focus on the short term?

. . . Why is it good to focus on the long term?

. . . Why is it not good to focus on the long term?

16. Existentialism

A school of philosophy

Søren Kierkegaard (1813-1855)
was a key figure in its development

. . . Danish philosopher and theologian

"...focused on subjective human experience
rather than the objective truths
of mathematics and science..."

"...interested in people's quiet struggle
with the apparent meaninglessness of life..."
- Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existentialism

What do you think of that?

17. Discussing the future of humanity is nice,
but what about my future??!

. . . If life is meaningless,
      then does the future matter?

. . . Is life meaningless?

. . . Is the question meaningless?

. . . Is it important to give life meaning?

. . . What should one try to do with life?

. . . My conclusion:
      reasoning from accepted first principles
      does not resolve these

      Therefore you can choose the answers you prefer!
(Or not choose, it's up to you)

              Equivalently, you can choose
              to add first principles
              as needed to get the answers

. . . . . . You could pick pessimistic answers,
            or
            you could pick optimistic ones too

. . . . . . Pure logic won't say which is right

. . . . . . Better to pick the optimistic ones!
Because life's more fun that way

. . . That seems like common sense...

   Yet it is not always a matter of conscious choice

                    "Breaking up is hard to do"

                   Optimistic and pessimistic moods

                   Taken to extremes - bipolar illness

                   That's brain chemistry not choice

                           Yet... optimism can be taught & practiced!

18. How societies "think" (actually, act) about the future

Source: J. Diamond,
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Recall pre-"discovery" Easter Island and the canoes
A big palm tree was needed to build a good canoe
A good canoe was needed to get plentiful seafood
So why on earth did someone cut down the last palm tree?
(read aloud from p. 410?)
      What do you think?

19. Why societies can collapse
(Another kind of existential problem)

You might think that societies would try to
anticipate and control existential risks

      But sometimes they don't
      What existential risks are possible for us?

Here is a taxonomy (from Diamond)

Failure to recognize a critical problem before it happens

Example: foxes and rabbits in Australia
Anasazi civilization (Arizona) did not anticipate local climate change (drought)
France built the Maginot line for defense, but lost WWII in mere weeks
Etc. (can you think of any)

Failure to recognize the problem when it happens
Examples: any slow-moving trend obscured by short-term effects
Note the noise-and-signal issue
           (http://computinginformationandthefuture.blogspot.com/2009/10/trend-analysis.html)
Also called "creeping normalcy"
Let me read from Diamond (p. 426) more about the palm trees...
Etc. (Can you think of any examples?)

Failure to try to solve the problem after it is recognized
Why on Earth would anyone or any group do that??
Yet according to Diamond this "failure is the most frequent"!
. . . Failure may benefit influential special interests that therefore push it
. . . Greenland Norse leaders kept cows (unsuited to the cold)
. . . The few pike fishermen stocked pike in Montana waters,
       destroying trout for the many more trout fishermen (p. 427)
. . . "Throughout recorded history,
        actions or inactions by self-absorbed
        kings, chiefs, and politicians
        have been a regular cause of societal collapses" - p. 431
. . . Any examples closer to home of
      benefiting a few at the expense of the rest?
. . . Is this rational behavior?
. . . Unregulated access to common resources
. . . . . . "If I don't take as much as I can, someone else will"
. . . . . . Pretty soon it's gone!
. . . . . . Any examples?
. . . . . . Is this rational behavior?
. . . . . . Solutions?

Irrational causes of societal collapse
. . . Beliefs that aren't right
. . . Taking a gamble and losing
. . . Etc. (any others you can think of?)

Try but fail to solve the problem
Greenland Norse colony: "The cruel reality is that...Greenland's cold climate and...limited...resources have posed an insuperably difficult challenge to...a long-lasting sustainable economy." - p. 436

20. Spoil sport of prediction #7: The care horizon

How much is the future of the human race worth? We'll increase it later, but let's start with an admittedly bargain basement $100. If you had $98.04 now, and put it in the bank at an interest rate of 2% per year, then in a year you'd have $100. That means getting $100 one year from now is only worth having $98.04 now, at least from a "Time Value of Money" perspective. Similarly, getting $100 in 2 years is only worth $96.12 now, because adding 2% to $96.12 gives $98.04 in one year, and compounding by adding another 2% gives $100 a year later. Extending this reasoning further, the human race in a modest 233 years would be worth just under a dollar now. In 466 years? Less than a penny.

It's fair to say that a hundred dollars is an underestimate for the value of the entire human race. So let's increase it to a fair (or at least fairer) price. We might multiply the number of people by the value of the life of each and every person on the planet. What is the value of a person's life? Economics (known as the dismal science, even to economists) tells us that the de facto value society places on a human life can actually be calculated, and courts of law in fact sometimes do such calculations. Answers vary, of course, but a few million dollars is often not that far off the mark. Multiply that by the number of people in the world and you get a biggish number, $100 quadrillion at the most for the value of the human race.

But wait - maybe you don't trust the financial and legal wizards with something so important. After all, we already trust them with some pretty important things, and they periodically betray that, seriously screwing things up. Maybe we should use a higher number, just to be more sure we aren't under-valuing ourselves.

How about a dollar for every single atom in the known universe? That's around $10^80 (1 followed by 80 zeroes dollars)? It is a lot of cash. Way (way way) more than the United States has ever printed. There are literally not enough atoms in the known universe to even print that much money. Yet, if that is the value of humanity's existence 9,070 years from now, the value at present would be...$100! A scant 466 years after that? Less than a penny. How about the present value of humanity existing in a million years? The answer is a fraction of a penny so tiny that popular spreadsheets, calculators and computer programming languages can't even state it. They typically just think it is 0, but if you must know, it's actually about $0.0000001.

Wait - someone in the back has a question - yes? "But it's not just the value in year on million we're after. We also need to add in the value in year 1,000,001, year 1,000,002, etc., forever and ever. That's got to add up, eventually." Well, only a little, it turns out. The value now is "bigger," but still less than $0.0000001 even at a dollar an atom. The upshot of all this is that there is no good financial reason to care whether humanity exists in ten thousand or a million years - at least according to an economist. Therefore there is no need to plan that far into the future, or go to trouble and expense to preserve the Earth indefinitely, or even to bother predicting that far ahead. The time value of money seems indeed to be a spoil sport of the prediction game.

21. Making it personal. Maybe you are still unconvinced.
Such sophistry fails to capture the real facts at a gut,
common sense level, you might say.
Then consider the following argument.

You care about yourself, so you don't want humanity to end while you are still alive (it might not be pleasant). You care about your children (or you will if you have any some day, or maybe you care about some or even all other children). So you don't want humanity to end during their lifetimes, even if you are already gone. You probably even care (or will care) about your grandchildren because you will hopefully get to know them personally. Furthermore, you care about their grandchildren (though probably less) simply because you care about your grandchildren, who care about theirs. But you have no gut level reason to care about the generations after that, because neither you, nor anyone you care about will ever know them. To put it another way, how much do you care about your grandparents' grandparents, and how much did they care about you? Still care in some more abstract, dispassionate sense? Then see the previous paragraph.

Maybe you are a fast enough breeder, and long enough liver, that you'll care about your great grandchildren and theirs, instead of just grandchildren. Yet that is still only 6 generations into the future, not even the biblical 7, a couple of centuries or so at the most. So relax, quit worrying, eat dessert first.... In particular, don't bother with predicting past the 2-century "care horizon," because there's little point to it. The 2-century care horizon is, thus, our last spoil sport of the prediction game.

References

D. Easton, The quantum mechanical tipping pencil - a caution for physics teachers, European Journal of Physics, vol. 28 (2007), pp. 1097-1104.

R. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Oxford University Press, 2004

"Time Value of Money": TVM is standard terminology in the finance and accounting world.

"Well, only a little, it turns out." There is a formula for calculating the sum of a geometrically decreasing, infinite series. Look it up (or play with a spreadsheet instead).

HW6

2010-10-03T19:09:00.000-07:00

Due next Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2010

10 pts. extra credit: go to the "UALR Writer's Network's first event for this year. It is a workshop designed to help students write stronger academic essays led by Dr. David Fisher of the Department of Rhetoric and Writing on Monday, October 11, from 1-2 pm in the Donaghey Student Center Room 205D."

1. Put your answer to this question on your blog under the heading HW6, and label it "1." Regarding your term project topic, give a list of references to useful Web sites and other information. Check the blogs of the others in the class because, for HW #6, people were asked to provide some Web sites relevant to your topic and provide reviews of them. You may quote the reviews in your document (use quotation marks) if you like. The basic idea here is to begin to assemble everything you have on the topic in one place so you have something to work with. Here are the blogs of the members of the class:

http://snakebytemike-futurecomputing.blogspot.com/
http://cfmsl.blogspot.com/
http://futureaccordingtoce.blogspot.com/
http://mattbarboza.blogspot.com/
http://otalotaibi.blogspot.com/
http://computingfutureschris.blogspot.com/
http://chinzokoyuko-computingfutures-ualr.blogspot.com/
http://paulnevill.wordpress.com/

Append to your posting any other information you have gathered about your term project topic in previous homeworks. This includes any notes and graphs based on the Delphi method, discussions on TRIZ or prediction markets relevant to your topic, etc. Don't worry about organization for this question, just get it all in one place.

2. Give your answer to this question the label "2." Design an outline for your report (if you are going to do a report). If you are going to write a story, design something about it (a plot? An outline? Some alternative possible themes? Whatever - if I had experience as a creative writing instructor I might be able to provide further guidance.) If you want to do something besides a report or a story (say a program, or whatever it is), you are welcome to check with me for suggestions, or just figure out yourself what to do for this question that is equivalent. Give the outline.

3. Give your answer to this question the label "3." Reorganize your answer to question 1 using the outline of question 2. The resulting report is a start to your project, and is the answer to this question!

HW5

2010-09-26T14:42:00.000-07:00

HW 5 Due Monday Oct. 4, 2010
(Extended to: before class on Wednesday Oct. 6)

As promised from last HW: Recall that a project is part of the course, and this project will grow step by step throughout the semester. In other words, you will keep adding to it as we go along, so that in the end it will be a piece of work you can be proud of! Make up a tentative plan for your term project, which will be a paper, software system, combination, skit or musical performance or painting (if you are a fine arts major), or whatever it is. You may analyze the same topic as you used for your Delphi exercise, or change topics but include the Delphi results as an appendix or supplemental report. Also, answer the question, "What would be a good thing to do next on this project?"

1. Answer a) and b).

a) Recall "The Last Lecture: Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams." This was very applicable to this course because he was talking about the future...your future! (Actually, his kids' futures - at the end he said that was one of his head fakes, but that's ok.) Give at least one lesson, insight, or other interesting thought you get from the movie. Explain.
b) Consider what topic you would like to work on for a term project. In this course, we will develop the project incrementally with each HW, so that it matures as we go along and there is less risk of a mad rush at the end. You could use the topic you used for our discussion of the Delphi Method. Or you could pick another one. Either way, you can change your mind later if you like. For now, state your topic, and how sure you are about whether to do it.

2. Here are the topics we discussed for the Delphi Method. Many of these will likely become term projects, so let us become more familiar with them so as to be able to discuss them better and help each other more. The topics are:

Future of holography
Future of birth control
Future of robotic surgery
Future of online and virtual education
Future of aircraft
Future of computer processing of human language
Future of brain-augmenting chips/helmets/computers/etc.
Future of computers that have creativity

The steps below will help start to familiarize all of us with these topics and enable some interesting discussions on them as we go forward.

a) (16 2/3 pts.) Find three useful Web pages or sites, one for each of three topics above, that someone investigating it would be likely to find of interest. They should not be wikipedia articles (though wikipedia can be a good place to find links to other pages). Similarly they should not be on the first page of search engine hits for an obvious query. That's too easy because the person doing that topic would surely find it without your help!
b) (16 2/3 pts.) Review them on your blog. For example, what is each about, what about it is interesting, what about it is not interesting, what do you agree or disagree with, why should or shouldn't someone study it, what questions does it leave you with, etc.
c) (16 2/3 pts.) Be prepared to briefly summarize your review(s) orally in class. (Handwritten notes to speak from would be good to bring to class. No slides. We may or may not have time to do all three, we'll just have to see.)

3) Apply TRIZ to your own topic:

a) (10 pts.) Pick a certain technology relevant to your topic. How could an implementation of it "branch out" and do other things? For example, pencils are a technology that "branched out" to also have erasers, storage bins for extra lead, clips for attaching it to a pocket, and so on. Cars now have air conditioners, play music, even have GPS devices for giving directions, etc. In the early days of cars, the idea of a car playing music would have been strange indeed!
b) (40 pts.) TRIZ also contains 40 principles for improving technologies (to find out more do a search on the terms 'TRIZ' and '40'). These are summarized in the course notes. Pick 10 of them and apply them to a technology relevant to your topic. What are the 10 possible future advances that you have discovered?

TRIZ - finding (and making) advances in technology

2010-09-15T12:54:00.000-07:00

Important!
If you do not yet have
   - a course blog -
it is not too late.
See me to get
things going.

1. "TRIZ":
a way to get ideas
about
future technologies

. . . But why call it TRIZ?

. . . . . . because "TRIZ"
            stands for:
           Теория
           решения
           изобретательских
           задач

. . . . . . . . . (of course -
                 what else
                 could it
                 stand for?)

. . . . . . transliteration:
           Teoriya
           Resheniya
           Izobretatelskikh
           Zadatch

. . . . . . translation:
           Theory of
           Decisions about
           Inventor's
           Problems

. . . TRIZ
      tries to make
      getting new ideas
      about technology
      a systematic process

. . . TRIZ was created by
      Genrich Altshuller

(Source: marketada.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/altshuller.bmp)

. . . . . . He registered

his first invention

            at age 15

. . . . . . At 20 he invented
            a way to escape
            from submarines

. . . . . . . . . (This did not help
                 the crew of
                 the Kursk)

. . . . . . . . . . . . length:
                       154 meters
                        How long is that?

. . . . . . . . . . . . (just under 1/10 mile)

. . . . . . . . . . . . height:
                       four stories

                       (not sure of the
                       conversion factor
                       for stories into feet)
                       but...

                       at least this building
                       wins out that way


. . . . . . . . . . . . was the world's
                        biggest attack submarine

. . . . . . . . . . . in 2000 a fuel explosion
                       sank the submarine.
                       Hitting the sea bottom
                       caused torpedoes
                       to explode.
                       Some crew
                     survived both explosions
                       but perished later
                       without escaping.

Part of salvaged wreck of
K-141 Kursk
(Source: englishrussia.com/images/kursk_submarine/1.jpg)

(Source: englishrussia.com/images/kursk_submarine/7.jpg)

A (much smaller) sub
is docked across the
river and open for
public visits

. . . . . . Altshuller worked as
            an invention inspector
            for the Soviet navy

2. TRIZ is a compendium
    of several related
    methods and approaches

. . . see e.g.
http://www.amsup.com/images/triz/triz.gif:

. . . also see
http://www.mazur.net/triz/contradi.htm
(e.g. http://www.mazur.net/triz/contra02.gif):

3. Let's look at TRIZ
- and also apply to
your topics

. . . One aspect:
the natural evolution
from doing one key task
and "branching out"

. . . . . . first pencils wrote

            then they "branched out":
            now they erase,
                            store,
                            don't need sharpening,
                          clip on, etc.

. . . . . . From keyboards
            to foldup keyboards,
            ergonomic keyboards,
            what other kinds?

. . . . . . How have
            cell phones
            branched out?

. . . . . . This also explains
            "bloatware"

. . . . . . Can you think of
            something that
            has not
            branched out much?

4. Also from TRIZ:
usability,
aesthetics
become factors later

. . . Early cars:
"you can get any color car
you want as long as it's black"

Example, anyone?

5.   TRIZ also has
         a set of 40
Principles of Invention

. . . the 40 Principles of Invention
. . . (see e.g.
      http://www.triz40.com/aff_Principles.htm)

We can think about these
with respect to the
evolution of any technology

For example:
consider some relatively recent
inventions that have room to grow

        E-readers
        CFLs
        Transgenic "enviropigs"
        Robots


6. . . . . . "Segmentation":
break something unitary
into parts, modules, pieces, etc.

. . . . . . . . . E.g. replace large truck
                  with a
                 tractor+trailer design
                 (is that good?)

7. . . . . . "Taking out":
remove a part

. . . . . . . . . E.g. put a
noisy air compressor
outside the building
where the air is used

. . . . . . . . . E.g. Use the
bark but not the dog
as part of a burglar alarm

8. . . . . . "Local Quality":
make something that is
uniform, nonuniform

. . . . . . . . . E.g. refrigerator with
freezer,
moist cold bin for veggies,
dry cold bin for meat, etc.

9. . . . . . "Assymetry":
make something that is symmetric, assymetric

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make a round rod have a flat part so a knob can turn it without slipping

10. . . . . . "Merging":
assemble similar objects into a larger assembly

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make a network of PCs

. . . . . . . . . E.g. 3 wheels more stable than 2 more stable than 1

. . . . . . . . . You can get emergent properties!

11. . . . . . "Universality":
make one thing do more than one thing

. . . . . . . . . E.g. pencil can erase, store, attach as well as write

12. . . . . . "Nested Doll":
(like those Russian dolls)

. . . . . . . . . E.g. set of measuring spoons

13. . . . . . "Anti-weight":
counter heaviness with flotation

. . . . . . . . . E.g. non-sinking boats; balloons; airplane wings and boat hydrofoils

14. . . . . . "Preliminary anti-action":
counter bad effects of good things somehow

. . . . . . . . . E.g. lead aprons at the dentist

. . . . . . . . . E.g. slow-release medications

15. . . . . . "Preliminary action":
do something to an object before it is needed

. . . . . . . . . E.g. put glue on paper before selling it - stickers! Tape!

. . . . . . . . . E.g. sterilize surgical instruments for next time - autoclaves, etc.

16. . . . . . "Beforehand cushioning":
have backup systems incorporated in case of failure

. . . . . . . . . E.g. emergency parachutes, fire escapes, parking brakes

17. . . . . . "Equipotentiality":
compensate for gravity

. . . . . . . . . E.g. spring-loaded cafeteria dish dispenser

18. . . . . . "The other way round":
reverse the action; go upside down; make something fixed, movable (or the reverse)

. . . . . . . . . E.g. rotate part instead of tool; treadmills; escalators

19. . . . . . "Spheroidality":
change from flat or angular surfaces to curved

. . . . . . . . . E.g. domes and arches; ball-point pens instead of quills

20. . . . . . "Dynamics":
make it movable or flexible

. . . . . . . . . E.g. adjustable car seats; medical scopes in flexible tubes

21. . . . . . "Partial or excessive actions":
Do a little too much or too little, then fix

. . . . . . . . . E.g. put a bit too much on your plate, then leave a little; almost fill your tank, then top off

22. . . . . . "Another dimension":
use the 3rd dimension or 4th, etc.

. . . . . . . . . E.g. 3D TV; add wings to car; 2-sided screen; double toothbrush; dump truck

23. . . . . . "Mechanical vibration":
cause oscillation/vibration

. . . . . . . . . E.g. electric hedge trimmer/carving knife; gall stone destruction; ultrasonic neurostimulation

24. . . . . . "Periodic action":
keep repeating

. . . . . . . . E.g. hitting nail with hammer; warbling siren

25. . . . . . "Continuity of useful action":
eliminate breaks

. . . . . . . . . E.g. night light; auto time sharing

26. . . . . . "Skipping":
do it so fast that harm is averted

. . . . . . . . . E.g. flash freezing; heated ice cream scoop

27. . . . . . "Turn Lemons into Lemonade":
use bad effect for a good purpose

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make/save money by recycling (reuse blank side; sell cans)

28. . . . . . "Feedback": improve performance by examining the effects

. . . . . . . . . E.g. hard to spend money in late spring here; cruise control

29. . . . . . "Intermediary": link/separate 2 things with a go-between

. . . . . . . . . E.g. potholder; nailset; shuttle diplomacy

30. . . . . . "Self-service": something serves itself

. . . . . . . . . E.g. fertilize with grass clippings; pot liquor to improve flavor

31. . . . . . "Copying": save with inexpensive copies

. . . . . . . . . E.g. VR instead of reality; photos; music on CD instead of live, etc.

32. . . . . . "Cheap short-lived objects": throw it away afterwards

. . . . . . . . . E.g. paper plates; disposable diapers; anyone remember returnable bottles?

33. . . . . . "Mechanics substitution": get rid of moving parts or other objects

. . . . . . . . . E.g. CD instead of vinyl record; acoustic pet fence

34. . . . . . "Pneumatics and hydraulics": use gas and liquid instead of solid parts

. . . . . . . . . E.g. gel-filled footwear soles; propane instead of logs

35. . . . . . "Flexible shells and thin films": get rid of heavy, solid things

. . . . . . . . . E.g. paper instead of slates; balloons

36. . . . . . "Porous materials": make nonporous things, porous

. . . . . . . . . E.g. save weight by making it fluffier

37. . . . . . "Color changes": change color or transparency of object or environment

. . . . . . . . . E.g. use red light to see nocturnal critters in a zoo

. . . . . . . . . E.g. use differently colored markers for writing

38. . . . . . "Homogeneity": make interacting objects of the same material

. . . . . . . . . E.g. cut diamonds with diamond dust

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make artificial organs out of person's own cells

39. . . . . . "Discarding and recovering": it disappears or changes itself

. . . . . . . . . E.g. biodegradable plastic bags; mechanical pencils

40. . . . . . "Parameter changes": change properties of a substance

. . . . . . . . . E.g. heat food to cook/kill germs

41. . . . . . "Phase transitions":

. . . . . . . . . E.g. freeze liquid center, then dip in warm chocolate

. . . . . . . . . E.g. air conditioning works by vaporizing/condensing a liquid

42. . . . . . "Thermal expansion": things expand/contract with temperature

. . . . . . . . . E.g. make thermostats that bend and curve as temperature changes

. . . . . . . . . . . . We could do this in this class fairly easily!

43. . . . . . "Strong oxidants": use oxygen-enrichment

. . . . . . . . . E.g. medical use; match heads and rocket fuel

44. . . . . . "Inert atmosphere": use chemically inactive stuff

. . . . . . . . . E.g. store priceless artifacts in argon or nitrogen

. . . . . . . . . E.g. add filler when making pills so you can pick them up

45. . . . . . "Composite materials": use multiple materials in a substance

. . . . . . . . . E.g. fiberglass; reinforced concrete

HW4

2010-09-14T09:45:00.000-07:00

HW due Wednesday 9/22/10

Prediction Markets: Tapping the Wisdom of Groups

Recall that prediction markets try to combine peoples' best judgments using a financial incentive to make sure the judgments really are the best they can make. There is interest in this topic - for example an academic journal started in 2007 which is devoted to scholarly examination of prediction markets, their structure, how well they work, etc.

This HW will hopefully be fun, and will help you gain a hands-on understanding of how prediction markets work.

1) (22.5 pts.) Let's assume you have $1,000 to invest in prediction markets. Naturally, you want to make more money, meaning that when you sell your best judgments you get more than the $1,000 you invested. Identify a prediction market company that you want to pretend invest in. We looked at http://www.intrade.com/ in class but it is easy to find others: just do a Web search on "prediction market." Using intrade as an example, http://www.intrade.com/ has both a set of real markets where you can invest (or some might claim gamble) real money, and a practice market site where you can invest pretend money. You can pretend invest in the real market without signing up for a login, or you can make a login account with them and use the practice market. Or you can find another prediction market other than intrade.com. You could even sign up for real at some prediction market company (keeping in mind that this course does not endorse, or suggest you to spend real money on, any particular company!). For the next question let's assume you are making pretend use of intrade's set of real markets.

2) (22.5 pts.) Find 10 prediction markets that you are interested in or know more about than most others. For example, you might pick the prediction market for whether 2010 will be the hottest year on record, the prediction market for some election issue that you might have some familiarity with, and some other eight. In fact there are dozens and dozens if not hundreds of markets they have easily accessible from their Web site. Make a list of your favorite 10.

3) (22.5 pts) For each of the 10 markets, decide whether the current probability shown on the graph is higher or lower than your best judgment. For this assignment it is the most recent number in the graph that we are interested in. List which of the 10 you judge the current probability to be too low. For example, maybe the graph shows 66 but you think 85% would be more accurate. Those are the ones that you expect to go up, so that you could make money.

4) Invest your $1,000 in the ones you feel are currently too low, as follows.

a. (3.5 pts.) Pick one of the markets. Say which one
b. (3.5 pts.) Figure out the price of a single contract (a contract is a little like a share of stock). That price is: (the probability in percentage points) x ($0.10). So if the probability on the graph is 65, meaning 65%=0.65, then a single contract will cost you 65 x $0.10, or $6.50, to buy. Give this price in your HW.
c. (3.5 pts.) Decide how many contracts to buy (remember you have $1,000 but will want to spread that over a number of different markets). Note the number in your HW.
d. (3.5 pts.) Figure out the total amount you are investing in this market. State this.
e. (8.5 pts.) Subtract that from $1,000 to find out how much you have left to invest in the other markets. Then go through the above steps again using another market. Repeat until you have invested all of the $1,000 in the markets you have chosen to invest in.

Please note that if you think a graph shows a number that is too high, then it would make little sense to buy shares of that market since you think it will eventually go down!

5) (10 pts., to be assigned toward the end of the semester. 10 if you make money, but only 5 if you lose money, sorry!) You may sell any of your contracts at any time during the semester, and buy any new contracts you like with the money you got from selling (or just hang on to the money if you prefer). You are not required to do this, if you just want to keep the same contracts. To sell, just see what the contracts you have are worth, using the graphs at the company Web site, and pretend you've sold them. Keep track of what you do by editing your blog entry for this HW. Toward the end of the semester I will ask everyone to sell everything and we'll see how much money you've made or lost!

--------------------------------------------------

A note about the next HW: the following or something like it will be part of the next HW, but not this one.

Recall that a project is part of the course, and this project will grow step by step throughout the semester. In other words, you will keep adding to it as we go along, so that in the end it will be a piece of work you can be proud of! Make up a tentative plan for your term project, which will be a paper, software system, combination, skit or musical performance or painting (if you are a fine arts major), or whatever it is. You may analyze the same topic as you used for your Delphi exercise, or change topics but include the Delphi results as an appendix or supplemental report. Also, answer the question, "What would be a good thing to do next on this project?"

Social Wisdom: Prediction Markets

2010-09-13T11:09:00.000-07:00

Wimba-friendly:
large font,
narrow column,
numbered slides

1. Putting your
money where
your mouth is

2. People make
predictions
all the time

. . . about
other peoples'
reactions

. . . . . . ability to predict
            the effect of
            your actions on others
            is useful

. . . . . . you need a
"theory of mind"

. . . . . . you're in a
game theory
scenario

. . . . . . data suggests
            population density
            may be
            a major cause of
            human brain size

Human brain. Credits: Patrick J. Lynch, medical illustrator; C. Carl Jaffe, MD, cardiologist. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/

Chimpanzee brain. Credits: Gaetan Lee; tilt corrected by Kaldari. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

. . . . . . this is the
            social competition theory
            of human brain genesis
           (ref.: Bailey & Geary,
           Hominid Brain Evolution:
           Testing Climatic,
           Ecological, and Social Competition
           Models
          Human Nature,
          vol. 20, no. 1,
          Mar. 2009, pp. 67-79. )http://www.springerlink.com/content/13t74x04552g5148/fulltext.html

. . . . . . so the need to predict
            may explain
            why we're human!
            (Predict what?)

3. Of course,
prediction is
important
in other areas too

Consider
the weather

Credits:
Don Amaro from
Madeira Islands,
Portugal,
upload by Herrick
17:17, 4 December 2007 (UTC).
Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Waterspout.
Credits: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/bigs/wea00308.jpg.
1969 September 10.
Photographer: Dr. Joseph Golden,
NOAA. Public domain.

. . . The National Weather Service (NWS)
       is a large, highly technical
       gov't agency devoted to
             prediction
       using large computers, etc.

. . . It's not perfect
but it's
much better than nothing

. . . weather prediction
      uses computers,
      but other kinds of
      prediction
      can use other methods

4. Like group wisdom...

     Sports betting
     is an example

     Another example:

     . . . Will the
     average global temperature
     for 2010
     be the highest
     ever recorded?

    . . . at 1:48 this afternoon:
     you can buy a "yes"
     for $8.00
   . . . if you're right -
           you will get $10
. . . if you're wrong -

Last year's graph of
bets for a hot 2009
Credits: intrade.com, http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=672070&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

Why should it
get closer to
100 or 0
as the year
proceeds?

Could it ever go high,
then end up low
(or vice versa)?

What do you think
the 2010 graph
for
"2010 to be hottest
year on record"
looks like?
(Ok, guess)

. . . we'll check on intrade.com soon...

5. More about sports

Tim Henman
serving at Wimbledon, 2005.
Credits:
Photo by Spiralz
license:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

. . . Sports betting
has a
long history

. . . People want to
       predict games

       They'll pay
       good money
       to do it!

. . . An honest "bookmaker"
      will offer odds
      that result in
      equal payoff
      regardless of outcome

. . . (But why
would you think
a bookmaker is honest?)

. . . By equalizing the payoffs,
      the true odds
      according to group wisdom
      become evident

6. Political prediction...

. . .During election season,
     media and candidates
     all try to
     predict outcomes

. . . Some of it
you don't hear about

. . . polling,
      trend analysis,
      sociological analysis
     are big

      . . . but why is
      asking people
      their opinion
      unreliable?

. . . predictions markets
have been claimed
to do it better!

7. About corporate stocks...

. . . . . . The stock market
is a
"leading economic indicator"

. . . . . . (Economists pay
            special attention to
            leading indicators)

. . . . . . Is the stock market
            a prediction market?

8. If someone
asked you
to invent a way
to collect
group predictive wisdom,
what might you come up with?

. . . Maybe a
Delphi-like method

. . . Probably (?) not
prediction markets

. . . . . . An early design for
            prediction markets
            appears in
            The Shockwave Rider,
            by John Brunner, 1975

. . . . . . His term was Delphi Pool

. . . . . . General idea:
            putting their money at stake
            makes people
            generate better predictions

9. Terrorism and
prediction markets

. . . . . . DARPA's PAM
            (Policy Analysis Market)
            permitted a
            prediction market
            for terrorist attacks

. . . . . . Does that
            sound like
            a good idea
            to you?

+ we might have forwarning

- terrorists might
buy predictions, then
make them come true
and make money!

. . . . . . In 2003,
          2 senators found out,
           PAM was cancelled, and
           a DARPA
           program director resigned

. . . . . . . . . not clear if
terrorism predictions
were ever traded

10. An example prediction market

. . . see http://www.intrade.com/,
check short video,
and look at the site

. . . HW will be to
      invest pretend money
      in a prediction market,
      and research and compare
      prediction markets
      and the
      Delphi method

HW3

2010-09-08T11:53:00.000-07:00

HW3. NOTE: this is due before class next Wednesday! That way we can apply it directly in class.

We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.

1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that would work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did, and (3) using semi-random numbers of your choice, make a graph like the one discussed.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library, if you remember what those are - they still have useful stuff not available on-line!). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.

3. Based on what you find out about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

4. Either do (a) or (b), but not both.

(a) Consider the topic that you discussed for HW2, for which you discussed the future impacts of (on individuals, organizations, and society):

- make a list of several future potential impacts (such as privacy, security, quality, or any others that seem useful to list), that relate to individuals, such as people like yourself. Explain why these impacts might occur.

- make a list of several future potential impacts (such as privacy, security, quality, or any others that seem useful to list), that relate to organizations, such as businesses, government, etc. Explain why these impacts might occur.

- make a list of several future potential impacts (such as privacy, security, quality, or any others that seem useful to list), that relate to society as a whole. Explain why these impacts might occur.

Delphi Method II

2010-09-08T11:39:00.000-07:00

(Narrow column,
numbered slides
to be Wimba-friendly!)

Ver. 1.1 (updated 5/19/2011)

Today

1. Finish the
"Delphi method"

      (next time:
     - prediction markets)

2. Recall the process

. . . each remaining student
will extract the
wisdom of the group
by using
the Delphi Method

. . . (I will help as needed)

. . . Each person will also
      have a chance
      to be the recorder

3. Before we start


Recall from last time:

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)

Source: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html

. . . Entire books
      have been written on
      the Delphi Method

4. Let's finish using

    the Delphi Method
    now . . .

5. Let's reflect a bit . . .
We're doing it for practice

. . . how would doing it
      "professionally"
      differ?

. . . and what are the
      "so whats?" of
      these differences?

. . . consider www.wired.com/wiredscience/20-11/05/wisdom-of-crowds-decline

6. Ambiguity in the question
- another important issue

. . .we've noticed
     this problem

     let's look at a
     well-known
     example
     Often, public parks
    have rules

    The rules try to
    make them fun
    for everyone

. . . The Greenway Park
      Community Board
      met and proposed
      this rule:

. . . What does this
really say . . .
- and how can we fix it??

HW3

2010-09-01T11:14:00.000-07:00

HW (Note: this is due before class next Wednesday! That way we can apply it directly in class.)

We discussed the Delphi method in class. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.

1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not yet discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.

3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

Delphi methods

2010-09-01T11:02:00.000-07:00

Revised 9/10
Wimba compatible

1. Reminder:
HW due today
(if not handed in last time)

. . . Still a few hours left
Confusions?
Questions?

2. Today's Plan

Start by learning the
"Delphi method"

Each person will then
use the Delphi method

- to extract group wisdom
- from the class
- on a question
about the future

Write down your
question now!. . . We will need

   a recorder
   for each question,
   to record results

The person
whose question it is
should consider
using the results
as part of their term project

. . . (If you change term project topic later,
you can still put these results in an appendix)

3. The Delphi Method
- Background

It is a town in Greece
(named Δελφοί)

. . . do you know those Greek letters?

Delphi was the site of
the "Delphic Oracle"

. . . (the Oracle of Apollo,
which was in Delphi)

. . . . . Apollo was a Greek god,
         a U.S. space program, &
         series of space ships

(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Apollo_program_insignia.png)

Oracle:
source of
wisdom or prediction

. . . same root as
      oral
      oration
      etc.

. . . a crystal ball is
      an example of
      an oracle

(Source: http://www.zgeek.com/forum/gallery/files/6/3/2/escher_crystal_ball_original.gif)

(Source: http://theweatherpages.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/crystal-ball1.jpg)

The Delphi method
- extracts
"wise predictions"
from groups

Well. . .
we are a group!

4. The Delphi Method
- How it works

(Of course,
variations exist)

1. Formulate
the question

. . . Should be
"sharp and
answerable"

- Futures Research Methodology V3.0, Ed. by J.C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon

2. Present
    results
    to participants

. . . Discuss, especially
      the most
      extreme opinions

. . . Important!
      Avoid conformism
      just to conform

. . . . . . "Campaigning"
            distorts the
            group wisdom

3. Participants
    - reconsider their answers
     in light of the discussion

4. Overall results include:

. . . median (why not mean?)

. . . depiction of the spread
     (e.g. middle 50%
             total range)

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)

5. There is
no better time
to try it than now!

HW2

2010-08-30T08:53:00.000-07:00

IFSC 4399/5399 Information, the future and fun things like that

Homework 2, due Wednesday, Sept. 9

M Sept. 7 is a holiday.

Please check over this assignment early, and let me know if you would like us to go over in class how to do any of these, or have any other questions.

1. Consider the different methods of making predictions that we went over in class. Pick the topic of your choice, apply them to that topic, and make some predictions about the future. You may focus on one scenario, or discuss alternative scenarios as well. You may write speculatively, or ground your discussion in facts and examples found on the Web or elsewhere. If purely speculatively without hunting down data on the Web, then more writing would make sense than if much of your time was spent finding data. A variation to a purely speculative essay would be to couch it as a short story, like a science fiction story. Alternatively, you can write a computer program that makes predictions, for example using the exponential curve equation or some other approach. In this vein, you could use Excel or another spreadsheet program to extrapolate. If you want to do something like that but aren't sure how, let me know and we can discuss in class how to use spreadsheets this way.

2. Recall the discussion of exponential curves. Using a spreadsheet or calculator, estimate the following (some hints follow, if you get stuck). Put the answers on your blog, but if the spreadsheets do not upload easily, it is not necessary to upload the actual spreadsheets.

Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.

Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)

Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.

What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?

Hints

Here are some HW hints that many of you might find of interest. We can talk more about it on Monday if people wish.

A student asks:

Q: I figured out the estimation with interest in the bank, but I did not use a formula. Did we need to have a formula? I just made up an amount of money to start off with. But I was not sure if there was a specific amount that you wanted.

Answer: Just calculating the results, one year at a time, is the easiest way to do it. Any amount of money to start with should give the same answer in number of years.

HW: Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.

Q: Is there a number that I start off with?

Answer: I would suggest starting with any number, then add 6% each year until it is double. The number of years it takes is the answer. Let's suppose current programmer productivity is 1000. Then the next year, it would be 1000 plus 6% of 1000. 6% is the same as 6/100 (definition of "%"). So we need to find 1000+(6/100)*1000. That equals 1.06*1000, which works out to 1060 after the first year.

Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)

HW: Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.

Q: And although it may be simple, I am not sure how to figure out the percent per year. How do I do that?

Answer: Trial and error! For a doubling in 2 years, plug in, say 40% and run your year-by-year calculation twice, for the two years, and see if the result is a doubling. If it more than doubles, try 39%. If it less than doubles, try 41% instead.For doubling in 18 months, that is the same as quadrupling in 3 years. With a whole number of years, you can now just run your year-by-year calculation 3 times, for the 3 years.

More Heuristics for Prediction

2010-08-30T08:48:00.000-07:00

"Shift Happens"
- youtube video
we'll watch later...
but first...

Heuristics

What is a heuristic?

Last time: curves

   We saw
   linear,
    exponential,
     S, and
    plateau curves

     Recall:
     each approximates
     a small piece
     of the one after

Are those curves...
    laws?
    heuristics?

Today -

   A grab bag of
      heuristics
  for predicting

(What was a heuristic again?)

Next time -
Delphi methods

To prepare:
  think of one question
  about the future of
something of your choice

     In class, we will use
     Delphi methods to
     apply our
     collective wisdom
     to your question

(Also, HW is due in two classses - questions about it?)

Let's check the youtube video "Did you know?"

After that, we'll continue...

Let's make a grid on the board for:

Statements in the video (rows)

Believability (column)

Implications (column)

Hidden messages (column)

Connection to methods of prediction (column)

Let's apply some of the following methods to something in the video!
(Some of these are from p. 73 of Peter Bishop's Futuring: An Introduction to the Study of the Future, World Futures Society workshop, Chicago, 7/16/09)
   Extrapolation

   Theoretical limits

   Paradigm shifts

   Adam Smith's "invisible hand"

   Cause and effect

   Foresight instead of forecasting

   Vision

   Expectations make it so?

   Risks & possibilities

   Can the future be controlled?

   Simulation/gaming

   Scenarios

   Oracles

   Psychohistory?

   Leading indicators

   Science fiction

   Road mapping

   Metrics

Trajectories of the Future

2010-08-25T12:11:00.000-07:00

(To incorporate for next time: http://www.kurzweilai.net/thinking-quantitatively-about-technological-progress)

An Example of Extrapolation:
Overpopulation on Mars

Suppose we started a
self-sustaining colony

100 colonists

What is your estimated
rate of increase per year?

What is the total population
capacity of Mars?

     Earth surface area = 510,072,000 km^2
     Earth land area    = 148,940,000 km^2
     Mars surface area = 144,798,500 km^2

                                     (0.284 of Earth)

How long do you think it will take
for Mars to overpopulate?

We can check this using a spreadsheet!

Just have the rows represent successive years
Each year has x% more people than the previous
See how many years go by until overpopulation!

Making and Discuss Predictions with Trajectories

Let's apply the following to:

. . . Topics of your choice

or, as other examples -

. . . Cars of the future

. . . Going to college in the future

. . . The lowly(?) pencil

Method: Trajectories of change

. . . in the short term, change appears linear

Example:

Last year you had 1 or 2 compact fluorescent bulbs

This year you will "probably have 1-2 more"

In the longer term, change looks exponential

Lightbulb example:

. . . you start with 1-2, but after a couple of years you've got a bunch

. . . change accelerates, in this case

. . . if you look at an exponential curve with a microscope, what does it look like?

. . . "Exponential": complicated word, tricky math, simple concept

. . . . . . goes up faster and faster

. . . . . . has a doubling time

Exponential curves explained

. . . Suppose something doubles every 3 years

. . . Popular example: computer CPU complexity doubles every 2 years

. . . new value after t years is original value v times 2^(t/3)

. . . f(t)=to * 2^(t/3)

. . . . . . where does the "doubles" appear?

. . . . . . where does the "every 3 years appear?

. . . . . . so it works for any factor of increase and any time constant

Longer term, things "Level Off": the S-curve

Also called "logistic curve"

Sort of "linear" early on

Then looks "exponential"

Then levels off

Justified by many, many diverse phenomena modelable as:
       Malthusian scenarios
       Constructal Theory scenarios
           A. Bejan and S. Lorente, The constructal law origin of the logistics S curve, Journal of Applied Physics, vol. 110 (2011), 024901, www.constructal.org/en/art/S-curve.pdf.

Do you think an even longer-term view will look like a plateau curve?

Think about pencils, compact fluorescents, and college, etc., etc.

What do you think of these curves?

(Source: http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/08/white-led-lights-with-135-lumens-per.html, 9/5/10)

There are other view of trajectories...

Gartner Hype Cycle

(source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg)

How might this apply to some of our topics?

There is also the Technology Adoption Life Cycle

Homework #1

2010-08-23T11:22:00.000-07:00

IFSC 4399/5399 ST: Computing Futures

HW 1, due next class
1. Instead of handing in printed assignments (the old-fashioned way), we will do it digitally when appropriate. Email can work but is also a bit old-fashioned compared to at least one more modern possibility: a blog. Start a new blog for this course and its assigments (or you can use an existing blog if you want to and have one). You may use your real name or a pseudonym as you wish, but email me the URL so I can access it. Any blog service will do, such as http://www.blogger.com/home, wordpress.com, and various others.
2. Check out the course Web site (which is a blog). Find the links (near top of page) to the "Course schedule and topic list" and "Additional course information." Navigate around a bit and note any questions you might have on your blog.
3. Go to the Web and find a URL about the future of a topic of your choice.
On your blog, give the link you found, and explain what it is and why it is interesting (e.g., why should someone check it out?).
4. Repeat question 3
5. Repeat question 3 again.

Class: M 8/23/10

2010-08-23T10:48:00.001-07:00

Introduction to the course

1. See flyer (handed out). History of "this" course.
2. Let's go over the course guidelines. Any questions?
3. Get to know a neighbor. Write their name large on a sheet of paper. Tell us:

their name
what classes they are taking
about one thing they think will happen some day (I will list the predictions on the board)

4. What does the name "Computing Futures" really mean?
5. Please write on a sheet of paper 0-5 topics you would find intriguing to discuss. Then I will read them off.
6. Look at HW1, due next time: questions? Want to start now?

Course Information

2010-08-23T09:47:00.000-07:00

You're Here!
Welcome to the syllabus and home page for...

IFSC 4399/5399 ST: Computing Futures
Fall 2010
Days: MW
Time: 3:05 - 4:20 p.m.
Place: EIT 218

Schedule and Topic List

Why?

Information, understanding it and using is key to the future
The computing field is undergoing rapid change
Biotech, nanotech, energy tech, and our society and culture are changing fast as well
The future is ahead, we're part of it, and is to our benefit to understand it ("knowledge is power")
Are you planning to live and work in the information age?

Be aware of what the future may hold
Learn how to extrapolate from the past and present into the future
Those things are not only useful but interesting too!

Textbooks:
None. The Web is loaded with useful information but there is no once-size-fits-all textbook for this course. Readings not on the Web will be distributed in class as needed.
Instructor availability:
After class, by appointment, at 569-3488, and by email to thehumanracetothefuture@gmail.com. Email is often best and fastest. Sometimes you can just stop by.
Students with Disabilities: (updated for Sp 2012)
Your success in this class is important to me, and it is the policy and practice of the University of Arkansas at Little Rock to create inclusive learning environments consistent with federal and state law. If you have a documented disability (or need to have a disability documented), and need an accommodation, please contact me privately as soon as possible, so that we can discuss with the Disability Resource Center (DRC) how to meet your specific needs and the requirements of the course. The DRC offers resources and coordinates reasonable accommodations for students with disabilities. Reasonable accommodations are established through an interactive process among you, your instructor(s) and the DRC. Thus, if you have a disability, please contact me and/or the DRC, at 501-569-3143 (V/TTY) or 501-683-7629 (VP). For more information, please visit the DRC website at www.ualr.edu/disability.
A few resources about the future (most contributed by students):

http://news.science360.gov/
http://futurity.org/
http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/science_nation/
Jakob Nielsen's site, has some predictions about the Web
Ray Kurzweil's site: evangelizing of the singularity
International Telecommunications Union has various reports on future trends in telecommunications
The world is aging. From http://www.economist.com/
Institute for the future (iftf.org)
Technology as Extension of Human Function Architectures(http://project.cyberpunk.ru/idb/technology_as_extension.html)
Risks and benefits of nanotech: http://www.def-logic.com/articles/nanomachines.html
SPIME (listen)
Transhumanism (H+ Magazine)
Powering devices wirelessly (http://www.ted.com/talks/eric_giler_demos_wireless_electricity.html)
Georgia Tech's "Future Computing Environments group http://www.cc.gatech.edu/gvu/fce/index.html
ted.com has tons of lectures relevant to the future, many of them well done
How long should we live? http://www.bepress.com/selt/vol1/iss1/
The following entries in this list are outdated and will be replaced with timely links...
P. J. Denning and R. M. Metcalfe, eds., Beyond Calculation: the Next Fifty Years of Computing, Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 1997.
Georgia Tech's "Future Computing Environments group http://www.cc.gatech.edu/gvu/fce/index.html
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/238940/computer_trends_of_the_future.html?cat=15
Wired magazine has a set of articles on the "future of money." http://www.wired.com/collections/future_of_money/
A paper on the future of disk storage: E. Grochowski and R. F. Hoyt, Future trends in hard disk drives, IEEE Trans. Magnetics, May 1996, pp. 1850-1854. See also http://www.storage.ibm.com/storage/technolo/grochows/grocho01.htm
Virtual reality and the future. Fubini's law. (Local mirror.)
Transhumanism (Local mirror of logo and FAQ.) Here is some more about transhumanism.
Jupiter Communications (you pay for what you get, but do you get what you pay for?). Ditto for Forward Concepts. (Local mirror of one of Jupiter's pages.)
FBI page on threat of future electronic attacks on the U.S. (Local mirror here, provided in case of electronic attack.)
Institute for the Future ...the web site has tons of stuff. Associated with Paul Saffo. (Local mirror of home page.) paper.
John McCann on "Cybertrends" (Here is a local mirror of the page.)
... and on the "Digital Dawn"
.. and on "Technology CyberTrends"
About Interval Research Corp., a (computation oriented) company dealing with the future.
`http://www.engr.uark.edu/~djb/Courses/Future/Future.html`
World Future Society Lots of links and stuff
World Future Society, Boston Chapter Lots more links and stuff
List of links to people with interesting ideas about the future.
More links
`http://www.tcom.bsu.edu/tcom200/discuss.htm` has interesting ideas for how to generate discussion questions.
http://gsbkip.uchicago.edu/htmls/savage/seminars.html is about a course for business forecasting.
Peter Cochrane's home page (British Telecomm) has a bunch of neat stuff, see Beyond Calculation references (chap 1?) for URL.
Lesk's home page (Bellcore) has a bunch of neat stuff, including lots of interesting graphs you can find by hunting around.
Farber's home page (upenn.edu?) is moderately interesting, but not nearly as interesting as Lesk's and Cochrane's.
Feb. 1997 CACM has lots of short articles on the future of computing and is a lot better than the book "Beyond Calculation"
http://www.rbarry.com seems to have possibilities but I haven't investigated it enough to say any more.
http://leahi.kcc.hawaii.edu/org/tcc-conf covered "Trends and Issues in Online Instruction"
Is the future of universities "dim"? http://www.eecs.wsu.edu/~virtual/hypermail/0113.html
A magazine, http://biz.swcp.com/xines/science/707.html
Lots of stuff available by doing web searches on the keyword "futurist"
A few resources about learning about the future

(from Jay Gary, School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship, Regent University, 7/09)
"foresight educators who maintain online networks and resources that you might check out":
Stephen Steele http://www.aacc.edu/future WFS Learning section, summits, resources
Jennifer Gidley http://www.wfsf.org/ Scholars & others: membership
Peter Bishop http://wwww.foresighteducation.wetpaint.com/ Curriculum sharing among educators
John Smart http://www.futuresphd.wetpaint.com/ Lists, taxonomies and discussions. http://foresightdevelopment.wetpaint.com/, http://accelerating.org/presentations/Selling&TeachingFD(115).ppt. According to John Jackson (7/09), "John's approach is that foresight is a life skill. He convinced UAT that Foresight should be a core requirement for all UAT students. His class is wildly popular[...] Part of his success comes from networking: the class requires students to work with institutions such as career counseling and the alumni association that the university cares about. In addition to developing foresight skills, the class serves to network the students more deeply into the university and its various services."
Richard Slaughter http://www.foresightinternational.com.au/ Books and CD-Roms for educators
Grading:

1. HWs will involve readings, written comments, and searching the Web.

2. HWs will also involve options: software development if you are so inclined, or analyses and literature searches if you are inclined that way, or creative writing products of various kinds. Why not paintings or skits if you are interested in art or theater? The class would like to hear your music if you'd like to do that!

3. Students will each present one 30-minute session to the class on a future-relevant topic, and write a paper (or program, or other product in addition to your talk). Preliminary versions may be due earlier in time to get feedback from the instructor, and you will be asked to develop this project gradually throughout the semester and hand in parts of it. I am a fan of developing larger projects one step at a time!

4. Class sessions will require preparation and HW. Aim for an average of 6 hours of work outside class each week for an average 3-credit course (3 credits means 3 50-minute classes or 2 75-minute classes per week), and study guides often recommend 2 hours of preparation per week for each credit. Please let me know if the work load differs significantly from this plan so I can adjust as needed. I don't want to overwork - or underwork - students in this class.

5. Typical assignments will be worth 100 points.

6. The presentation will be 200 pts. and the paper, program, or other product will also be 200 pts. grade. The annotated bibliography will be developed gradually throughout the semester.

7. If you must be absent from a class or cannot hand something in on time due to illness or some other reason, please contact me as soon as possible.

8. Because this course has students of potentially many different levels and backgrounds, effort will be a significant factor in grading. This course is open to all. Welcome!

Assignment of final grade in the course:

90% - 100% -- "A." Everyone can have one if they work at it!

89.5% - 89.99% -- "A" or "B," depending on class attendance or legitimate excuses & instructor's judgment

80% - 89.49% -- "B"

79.5% - 79.99% -- "B" or "C," depending on class attendance or legitimate excuses & instructor's judgment

70% - 79.49% -- "C"

69.5% - 69.99% -- "C" or "D," depending on class attendance or legitimate excuses & instructor's judgment

60% - 69.49% -- "D"

59.5% - 59.99% -- "D" or "F," depending on class attendance or legitimate excuses & instructor's judgment

50% - 59.49% -- "F"

The minimum grade on any quiz or assignment is 50% (e.g. not handed in), but all grades will be counted.

Standard lateness policy: 10% off the grade on any assignment handed in up to 1 week late. 20 % off assignments that are very late.

Schedule, Fall 2010

2010-08-23T08:53:00.000-07:00

ST: Computing, Information and the Future

Please note: this schedule is based on last year's and will be adjusted for this year as we proceed. Please let me know of any topic requests - we can be flexible!
M 8/23/10. . .General course information
. . .Introductory meeting
Homework #1, due next class
W 8/25/10. . .Trajectories of the future (2011 instructor note: this is now almost 2 classes worth and was split with 9/20/10)
M 8/30/10. . . More on prediction
. . .Homework #2, due two classes from today
. . ."Did You Know?" video and discussion (also search for variations, remakes, & updates)
. . .To prepare for next time: think of a question about the future. We will apply a Delphi method to it.
W 9/1/10. . . Delphi Method
M 9/6/10. . . Labor Day (Holiday)
W 9/8/10. . . Delphi Method II
. . . Homework #3, due W 9/15/10
M 9/13/10. . . Prediction markets
. . .Homework #4, due Wednesday Sept. 22
W 9/15/10. . . TRIZ introduction
M 9/20/10. . . Exponential change redux: overpopulation on Mars
(next year: move "Backup plan for homo sapiens: space adventure" to here)
W 9/22/10. . . Personal futures: "The Last Lecture," or "How to Really Achieve Your Childhood Dreams" (movie by Randy Pausch)
M 9/27/10. . . TRIZ cont.: 40 principles of technological advancement
. . . Homework #5, due Mon. Oct. 4, 2010 extended to Oct. 6 before class

W 9/29/10 . . . More TRIZ discussion (with 10-min. hands-on robot intro)
M 10/4/10 . . . Finish TRIZ discussion
W 10/6/10 . . . Students discuss other student topics from their HW5 blog entries

. . . Homework #6, due Wed. Oct. 13, 2010
M 10/11/10 . . . Spoil sports of the prediction game #1: the observer effect (ser. #1)
W 10/13/10. . . Spoil sports of the prediction game
. . .Homework #7, due next Wednesday (in a week)
M 10/18/10. . . Finish spoil sports of the prediction game
W 10/20/10. . . Movie discussion: Earth 2100 (Ser. #4)
. . .Homework #8, due next Wednesday
M 10/25/10 . . . Movie discussion II: Earth 2100 (Ser. #4)
W 10/27/10. . . Trend analysis I
. . . Finish movie discussion II: Earth 2100 (Ser. #4)
. . . Weather and climate simulation: are interventions even less reliable than predictions?
. . . Trend analysis II
. . . Homework #9, due Wed. 11/3/10
M 11/1/10 . . . Trying out a robot (ser. #5)
W 11/3/10. . . Student presentation: Claudia (age and visions of the future)
. . . AIShield, safeguarding humanity and the risks of AI/robotics
. . . Robogenesis
. . . iRobot and the "Create" Robot
. . . Start Centralization. . . and some robot pics and videos
. . . Metrics for progress in robotics
. . . Homework #10, due Wed. 11/10/10: if behind on HWs, do this one and catch up on others later
M 11/8/10 . . . Robotics II: music and motion (ser. #5); Google's robotic cars
W 11/10/10. . . Finish robotics: Centralization (slide 2)
. . . Gaining long term perspective through time lapse (video discussions I)
. . . Homework #11, due W Nov. 17
M 11/15/10 . . . Video discussions II (next time: last video not that great)
W 11/17/10 . . . Student presentation: Chinzo (Unikey)
. . . Video discussions II (next time: last video not that great)
. . . Homework #12, due W Nov. 24
M 11/22/10. . . Guided work day: HW catchup, project paper, or project presentation
W 11/24/10. . . Toxoplasmosis (see also http://www.slate.com/id/2259350) (ser. #9)
M 11/29/10 . . . Student presentation: Paul (Telepresence)
. . . Hubbert peak for oil
. . . Homework #13: finish term paper or other term project
W 12/1/10. . . Student presentations: Chris, Matt (Natural language assistant)
. . . Hubbert peak for oil (finish)
. . . Alternative energy: photovoltaics (solar cells) ser. #7
M 12/6/10
. . . Student presentation: Omar (Future of transportation)
. . . Student presentation: Abdulla (Telepresence)
. . . Finish alternative energy: photovoltaics (solar cells) ser. #7
M 12/13/10 (1:30-3:30 p.m.)
. . . Scheduled final exam session: this meeting is for catching up on assignments, and is not required if you are fully caught up.
###Updated for 2010 up to here (the material below is still subject to change)###

Some rough notes on potential other discussion topics
. . . TED videos and discussions

. . . Backup plan for homo sapiens: space adventure

Topic List

2009-12-12T20:47:00.000-08:00

Computing, Information and the Future

Course Index and Calendar

M 8/24/09
. . .General course information
. . .Introductory meeting
. . .Homework #1, due next class
W 8/26/09
. . .Trajectories of the future
. . .Homework #2, due in one week
M 8/31/09
. . . More on prediction
. . ."Did You Know?" video and discussion
. . .To prepare for next time: think of a question about the future. We will apply a Delphi method to it.
W 9/2/09
. . . Delphi Method
. . . Homework #3, due W 9/7/09
. . . To prepare for next time: HW 3 is due before class this time, so we can apply it in class.
W 9/9/09
. . . Delphi Method II
. . . Homework #4, due W 9/14/09 (soon - next class!)
M 9/14/09
. . . Updates on term project topics (self-driving cars)
. . . Prediction markets
. . . Homework #5, due Tues. 9/22/09.
W 9/16/09
. . . TRIZ introduction
M 9/21/09
. . . TRIZ cont.: 40 principles of technological advancement
. . . Homework #6, due Mon. 9/28/09.
W 9/23/09
. . . Finish TRIZ discussion
M 9/28/09
. . . Updates: some recent news related to your projects
. . . Spoil sports of the prediction game #1: the observer effect (ser. #1)
. . . Homework #7, due Mon. 10/5/09.
W 9/30/09
. . . Preview: http://www.physorg.com/news173423784.html
. . . More spoil sports of the prediction game
M 10/5/09
. . . Movie discussion: Minority Report (ser. # 2)
. . . Homework #8, due in two days before class! (Question 1) and next Monday (Question 2)
W 10/7/09
. . . Movie discussion: Minority Report (ser. #4)
M 10/12/09
. . . Movie discussions: Ghost in the Shell (ser. #4)
W 10/14/09
. . . Homework #9, due Wed. 10/21/09
. . . Movie discussions: Ghost in the Shell (ser. #4)
M 10/19/09
. . . Movie discussion: Earth 2100 (ser. #4)
W 10/21/09
. . . Movie discussion II: Earth 2100
. . . Homework #10, due Wed. 10/28/09
M 10/26/09
. . . Trend analysis I
. . . Followup from last time: cans
. . . The weather: more spoil sports of the prediction game (butterfly effect & perturbations)
. . . Weather and climate simulation: are interventions even less reliable than predictions?
. . . Trend analysis II
W 10/28/08
. . . Homework #11, due Wed. 11/2/09
. . . Next time - robots! Let's look at one now...
. . . Spoil sports of prediction: existential angst
M 11/2/09
. . . Robotics I: AIShield, safeguarding humanity and the risks of AI/robotics
. . . Robogenesis
. . . iRobot and the "Create" Robot
. . . Some robot pics and videos
. . . Metrics for progress in robotics
W 11/4/09
. . . Homework #12, due W Nov. 11
. . . Trying out a robot (ser. #5)
M 11/9/09
. . . Robotics II: music and motion (ser. #5)
W 11/11/09
. . . Homework #13, due W Nov. 18
. . . Toxoplasmosis (see also http://www.slate.com/id/2259350)
M 11/16/09
. . . Homework #14, due W Nov. 25 (ser. #6)
. . . Backup plan for homo sapiens: space adventure
W 11/18/09
. . . Michael (data markup; software demo part later) ser. #8
. . . Backup plan for homo sapiens: space adventure (cont.)
M 11/23/09
. . . Reuben (green energy) ser. #8
. . . Hubbert peak for oil
W 11/25/09
. . . Andrew (future of gaming, etc.)
. . . Jeremy (electronic medical records) ser. #8
M 11/30/09
. . . Last HW! finish project and hand in by next Monday (12/7): hard copy or email (not blog)
. . . Kevin (internet speeds and the future)
. . . Alternative energy: photovoltaics (solar cells) ser. #7
W 12/2/09
. . . Amber (technology and zombie acopolypses)
. . . Doug (technology and zombie acopolypses) ser. #8
M 12/7/09
. . . Tania (DNA databases and the future)
. . . Chris ("Touch the Future: A New Age of Digital Interaction.") ser. #8
W 12/9/09 (1:30-3:30 p.m.), scheduled final exam session
. . . this meeting will be for catching up on any missing HWs

Some rough notes on potential other discussion topics

Rough notes on possible class topics

2009-12-12T20:41:00.000-08:00

Rough notes on possible other class topics follow

tentative . . . The human race against eternity . . . Robotics IIa: Turing test, Loebner prize . . . Energy futures/PV, Hubbert Peak... . . . singularity, AI singularity . . . brain scanning . . . life extension . . . more hot topics: nanotech, biotech (may take two sessions...) . . . future of energy: gas up now while you still can! Pointers: energy tech futures (will solar cells swamp the alternatives? - see Kurzweil's predictions from e.g. Singularity Summit 2009; Nemet's Beyond the Learning Curve: Factors Influenceing Cost Reductions in Photovoltaics. Energy Policy 34(2006): 3218-3232. Algae, corn, cellulosic ethanol, wind, oil, coal, nuclear, fusion, space solar, .... Energy economics e.g. Maximum Power: the Ideas and Applications of H. T. Odum, by Charles A. S. Hall, editor.)
. . . Update from HW 6: http://engineerdoug.blogspot.com/,http://savoryape.com/,http://savoryape.com/,http://my.opera.com/lively/blog/,http://hibird250.blogspot.com/,http://cymaril.blogspot.com/,http://ualrifsc4399.blogspot.com/, http://ifsc4399-02assignments.blogspot.com/, http://cif-ab.blogspot.com/, http://taniashw.blogspot.com/, http://canada88.blogspot.com/, http://phantasyfin.blogspot.com/, http://jswilkerson.blogspot.com/ . . . Other updates: http://www.kurzweilai.net/news/frame.html?main=/news/news_single.html?id%3D11203,http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/10/06/security.screening/index.html, http://www.physorg.com/news173644547.html http://abcnews.go.com/Health/WellnessNews/half-todays-babies-expected-live-past-100/story?id=8724273

-------------
Topics chosen by students to present (to be scheduled for 1/2 hour each; you may switch or modify your topic if you like)

lifetime prediction from nothing but current age.extraterestrial colonization (show book ahead of time?)

energy Hubber peak,

solar a la Kurzweil

How would things change if certain resoures were essentiall free? computers, energy, communication, bandwidth, education, land, transportation, food, free time, brain scanning (would we have our politicians submit to it?), DNA sequencing, robots,...what else?

Cybernetics (Doug): http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090923133010.htm, http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/
How long will Homo sapiens sapiens be the dominant species on planet Earth? (Chris)
When will the broadband Internet speed/download speed offering reach 1 GBPS (gigabyte per second globally (i.e 51 to 49 % being dominant), where downloading a whole movie (approx 2 Gigs) would happen in 3 seconds at max? (Kevin):
http://www.technologyreview.com/communications/23535/
When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster? (Zaher)
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft? (Amber)
When will cars will be fully automated? (Jay)
How long before the U.S. is more energy efficient in our homes regarding lighting? (Tara)
What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050? (Andrew): http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/29/science/29aging.html?_r=1; http://abcnews.go.com/Health/WellnessNews/half-todays-babies-expected-live-past-100/story?id=8724273
DNA database(s) of the future (Tania)
"Green energy" technologies (Reuben)http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/23526/
Future markup for data (Michael)http://www.nytimes.com/external/readwriteweb/2009/09/23/23readwriteweb-annotate-the-web-google-launches-sidewiki-27381.html

Unit "Out of the mists: stories and accounts"

1. Myths, motifs (e.g. good vs. evil), creation myths, and destruction myths (Religious, techno, cosmological, what else?)

2. Legends, motifs - about the future (transhumanism*; Singularity, singularitarians, and singularitarianism)

3. Folklore, folk tales, motifs, "commercial folk tales" (popular books and movies) and their motifs, "all your base are belong to us"*. Movies suggested include

SETI: what is life; life as we know it; life as we can imagine it; life as we can't imagine it (souls, "energy fields," disembodied data patterns); precautionary principle and logic, Drake eq., Drake eq. 2.0; the search; HW: each student picks an extraterrestrial place (a moon, anything at all) & investigates it - what could live there? How could we colonize it?

S: Harry Potter, see draft posting
Books suggested include:
Edge of Eternity,
The Future,
Brave New World (2),
1984 (2),
Snow Crash,
Count Zero,
2001:50 (?),
Slumdog Millionaire,
Da Vinci Code,
The Giver,
Chrichton (Next, Prey, Timeline),
Paprina

------------
Sociopathism as a force in society; more generally, self-interest (see e.g. Diamond), Adam Smith's invisible hand
--------------
Hot areas of change:
unit: bioinformatics & biotech futures*
unit: nanotechnology futures
unit: ecological futures (Catton's Overshoot has an interesting theme, developed by Diamond's Collapse, for example)
------------

Connectivity: S. suggests - trends of an increasingly connected world: http://techdirt.com/articles/20090719/0323525592.shtml

-------------
Innovation in economic and political systems: what hasn't been tried yet?
-------------

Future of human population (on earth, on extraterrestrial colonies like on the moon or Mars, exponential growth, Malthusian catastrophe in theory and in practice (e.g. Diamond's account of Easter Island etc.), solutions (e.g. Tikopia), solutions (e.g. is voluntary contraception enough?), population growth as an information/computation problem (equilibrium, oscillation, chaos theory). hook - 3D face on mars http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/07/28/martian-mesa-in-3d/, bring 3D glasses and mars 3d book.
simulate what happens to society when life expectancy goes up.nUSe excel, have everyone step therough a simulation model in class. Metrics for life span, the whole live long enough that expectancy goes above 1:1.What does that metric really mean and its disadvantages/counter-intuitive aspects
Future of human species (productivity increase extrapolated, genetic change, static humans and biological paradigm shifts in other species, etc.)
Future of biosphere (silicon-based "organisms", expansion of speciation over time, bottlenecks in water, nitrogen, etc., symbiosis
Mass extinctions
Geological change: continental drift, loss of water as earth cools, global warming and the prehistoric record, atmostpheric change, H2S catastrophe hypothesis, methane catastrophe hypothesis, solar radiation trend, snowball earth hypothesis, are we on the brink of an ice age?,
cosmological futures: life cycle of the sun, life cycle of the universe theories, red dwarf stars.
SETI: precautionary principle, Voyager (?) plaque, radio emission sphere, red dwarf stars, exotic environments (neutron stars, giant gas planets, Saturn's moons, etc.)

From survey:

Metrics for technological progress based on brainstorming about possibilities (3y2n)
Computer Memory: many facets of the problem; exponential laws for future memory, need for, technologies for, lifetime, etc. New kind of thumb drive 16y1n
Scenarios and alteratives: DebateGraph, software in the cloud that we can use 4y3n
"The Body Electric" by Gordon Bell and its contemporary aspects 6y2n
"Better Democracy Through Technology" by Brock Meeks and its contemporary aspects 6y1n
"Moore's Law: Past, Present, and Future" by Robert Schaller and its contemporary aspects 5y3n
Communications technology of the future 12y1n
"Software Engineering: Stretching the Limits of Complexity" by Nancy Leveson and its contemporary aspects 6y2n
The AI singularity: infinite artificial intelligence?? 11y1n
History and future of the Web 8y3n
Internet push technology 9y2n
"Post-WIMP User Interfaces" by Andries van Dam and its contemporary aspects 2y5n
"World Wide Computer," by Tim Berners-Lee and its contemporary aspects 6y1n
Java dispute between Sun and Microsoft and its contemporary aspects (in particular, Sun is now irrelevant, but the IBM – Microsoft – Google sequence of 600-pound gorillas is interesting 6y2n
Globalizing Business, Education, Culture Through the Internet 8y3n
Wearable Computing (cf. "Smart Clothing: the Shift to Wearable Computing," Steve Mann) 8y2n
Vinton G. Cerf, "When They're Everywhere." 1y6n
The future of telecommuting 10y1n
Chapter 8 in "Beyond Calculation", by Donald Norman, "Why It's Good that Computers Don't Work Like the Brain." 6y2n
"Sensors: the Next Wave of Innovation" by P. Saffo 4y2n
Gordon Bell and James N. Gray, "The Revolution Yet to Happen." 7y4n
Existential risks to humanity 10y1x
Asteroid impact 9y4n
The singularity 7y3n
Immortality 9y4n
Malthusian catastrophe 5y5n
Pestilence (Bird flu? Something new? Terrorism using new germs?) 10y2n
Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics (and contemporary thinking) 13y1x
Moral Machines 7y3n
Discuss future of Object-Oriented Programming: reading - Excerpts from Schach's book 6y3n
Discuss D. Tsichritzis, "How to Surf the Technology Waves We Created" 3y3n
The very distant future 10y3n
Continental drift and the future of the world map 9y2n
Bob Frankston, "Beyond Limits." 3y4n
"How to Think About Trends,” by R. W. Hamming 4y4n
Chapter 6: Mark Weiser and John Seely Brown, "The Coming Age of Calm Technology." 4y2n
Discussion of paper on VR: "....I See and I Remember...." by Peter Cochrane 2y4n
Discussion of paper on future of robotics: "What if AI Succeeds?" by Hugo de Garis 5y3n
Chapter 9: David Gelernter, "The Logic of Dreams." 6y1n
Chapter 10: Franz A. Alt, "End-Running Human Intelligence." 6y2n
Future of Network Computers (Hmm, the magazine NC World stopped publishing in June 1998...) 7y2n
Cloud computing (they used to call it “network computing,” hmm) 11y2n
William J. Mitchell and Oliver Strimpel, "There and Not There." 3y3n
Peter J. Denning, "How We Will Learn." 5y3n
Mills on Communication 1y7n
Romine, S. Yan on Wearable Computing 5y5n
F. Zhang on Whether Computers will Dominate our Future 10y2n
Schaefer on Nanotechnology 12y1n

Requests:

filtering and search
The God particle
Data organization and interpretatio through visual elements and design, e.g. flare.prefuse.org
Technology and its growing and potential impact on the world. Posible overtaking...The end? (Ok, that's often called the "technological singularity")
Future terrorism in the distant future
Logic of dreams (theories for what are dreams for, prospects for determining the answer, prospects for applying the theory for practical use, role of sleep and prospects for not sleeping, fatal familial insomnia, pharmaceuticals and dreams, dream interpretation, lucid dreaming, hypnogogy, remembering dreams, oh yeah - maybe the future and information can be worked into this too...maybe!)
bionics/cyborgs (3 futures for robotics: conflict, servitude, and prosthesis)
Biochemical creation of life, how, why (somehow the future etc. can intersect here? Do we care?)
autoautomobiles
genetic engineering (2)s
cybernetics
Medicine in the future
Buildings in the future
3D printing - how big will it get? (rep-rap, lathe, etc.)
Bruce Sterling's SXSW (South by Southwest) 2006 keynote (s3.amazonaws.com/chota/sxsw-2006-keynote.mp3, s3.amazonaws.com/chota/HotaSpimeOpinion.rtf), regarding the concept and lifecycle of "SPIME." Also the idea of the "internet of things"
TED talks, such as www.ted.com/talks/eric_giler_demos_wireless_electricity.html, www.ted.com/talks/jill_bolte_taylor_s_powerful_stroke_of_insight.html, www.ted.com/talks/johnny_lee_demos_wii_remote_hacks.html.
Augmented reality - use of phone as overlay screen for the real world (google "iphone augmented reality"), e.g. www.readwriteweb.com/archives/augmented_reality_five_barriers_to_a_web_thats_eve.php

A few comments on photovoltaics (solar cells)

2009-11-30T10:21:00.000-08:00

Updated 12/6/10

Solar Cells: one path to sustainable energy

. . . also called "photovoltaic" (PV) energy

. . . Some images:

http://inhabitat.com/wp-content/uploads/sunpower_main.jpg

http://www.greenfab.us/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/solar-cells.jpg

http://www.scitoyscatalog.com/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Product_Code=SOLARCELL&Category_Code=
http://keetsa.com/blog/science-and-technology/solar-power/solar-cells-run-off-like-printing/
http://blog.makezine.com/archive/2006/08/make_a_solar_cell_in_your.html
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/05/suntech_starts.php
http://www.metaefficient.com/architecture-and-building/skyscraper-gets-covered-in-7000-solar-panels.html

What is the future of PV, etc.?

. . . First, the "etc.": http://blog.ted.com/2009/06/02/announcing_sing/

. . . Next, lets focus on the PV graph

. . . . . . curve fitting a straight line gives the slope

. . . . . . what is the slope? See hard copies

. . . . . . let's "Delphi it"!

Types of PV technology

. . . Example technological advance

. . . . . . Cost reduction approach: vacuum typically needed to deposit top layer of anti-reflective material, vacuum processing is expensive, spray-on technology is cheaper and under development

. . . . . . Thin film vs. regular

. . . Efficiency improvement (are these exponential?)

. . . . . . http://www.ijdesign.com/blog/Solar-Cell-Efficiency.jpg
. . . . . . http://www.allinsolars.com/images/Solar%20Cell%20Efficiency.gif
. . . . . . http://www.solarnavigator.net/images/pv_solar_module_efficiency_chart.jpg
. . . . . . http://www.tf.uni-kiel.de/matwis/amat/semi_en/kap_3/illustr/eta_development.gif

For general information on PV see: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom

A major tipping point: grid parity

. . . check some graphs: see
. . . . . . image.google.com (query: grid parity)

Exercise: using a hard copy of Kurzweil's graph, figure out when PV will satisfy 100% of energy needs

. . . Assume world uses 15,000,000 (15 million) megawatts (per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption)
. . . . . . Note: for simplicity, you may assume 10,000,000 if you wish

. . . Assume continued exponential growth
. . . . . . (straight line on log graph)

. . . Ok that's the mathematical result, but what do you think will really happen?
. . . . . . Why?

Oil: the Hubbert peak

2009-11-22T19:22:00.000-08:00

Revised 11/29/10

Today: the Hubbert Peak

1. Who was Hubbert?

. . . Marion King Hubbert
(Oct. 5, 1903 – Oct. 11, 1989)

. . . Was a geologist at Shell

. . . Devised a way to predict
oil production for a given oil field

. . .and by extension for a given country

2. ...and what was his peak?

Oil field production rises,
then hits a limit,
then falls

Duh!

But why does it rise? Level off? Fall?

The qualitative observation is obvious

Quantifying it (to allow predictions) is trickier

3. Hubbert's prediction about the US
. . . in 1956 he predicted:
US oil production would peak in 1965-1970

. . . he was widely disbelieved

. . . but US production did peak in 1970

. . . sure we still pump the stuff
but less, year by year

4. Other countries and their Hubbert Peaks

. . . Each country has its own peak

. . . Most countries have peaked already!

. . . Some major oil-producting countries have not

. . . Iraq, Iran are among them

5. If fields and countries peak,
why not the whole world too?

Suppose one country's production is increasing . . .
can world production be decreasing?

. . . How is the world different
from any one country or oil field?

6. Why the world is a bit different

. . . price elasticity of oil:

Δ demand/Δ price

What is "Δ"?

Suppose demand goes up 20%,

but price barely budges

Is the price very elastic

or not very elastic?

Suppose demand goes up 10%,

but price jumps to $4/gallon?

Is the price very elastic
or not very elastic?

So are oil prices elastic or not?

7. How sensitive are oil prices
to changes in production?

. . . for a field?

. . . for a country?

. . . for the world?

8. Ok, so...
How sensitive is production
to changes in price?

. . . how might
the world peak of production
differ from
a countries peak of production?

9. Example: pre-recession gas prices

When will the peak be?
. . . http://www.hubbertpeak.com/images/peakoilproduction2008.png
or, better, just
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

. . . Inference:
as recession eases,
gas prices will skyrocket
... again

. . .Inference #2:
getting new wheels soon?
Avoid a gas guzzler...

. . . When will be a better time than now
to go for a power & performance oriented car?

Btw: Hubbert-style peaks apply to other resources
. . . renewable, non-renewable, or both?

Homework 14

2009-11-16T10:58:00.001-08:00

Due Wednesday, Nov. 25

1) Check out the Leonid shower tonight, if the sky happens to be clear enough to catch something interesting. The general direction to look is the constellation Leo, which may be in the general direction of Northeast. You don't have to be able to recognize Leo because the meteors will be spread out over a fair area. If this seems unrealistic, then find 2 videos of the Leonid shower (at least, to include at least one that you would consider "worth it to have checked out"), or some other planet, moon, or other astronomical phenomenon. (a) Describe. (b) Then relate to the concept of colonization somehow. Or if you prefer, discuss colonization in the context of some other planet, moon, part of the Earth, etc.

2) Term projects - if you do not know when your presentation is, let me know. Work more on it...the closer you get to finishing it, the better off you'll be! Post new material on your blog. Also, start preparing your presentation. One way to do that is to use your project writeup as a guide, and make slides that will step us all through it (just a suggestion).

Backup plan for homo sapiens: space adventure

2009-11-16T09:35:00.001-08:00

Check out Mars 3-D book now...

. . . It will be passed around

. . . Here is how to use it

Meteors

. . . Terminology: meteoroid, meteor, meteorite
(and asteroid, comet, micrometeoroid, cosmic dust, etc.)

. . . Anyone ever see a shooting star?

. . . "The wonders of the universe!"

. . . Video: shooting star, satellites, ufo

. . . 3-second video of shooting star

How to protect against:

. . . supervolcanoes (cradle of humanity?)

. . . asteroid impacts (death to dinosaurs?)

. . . nuclear war (death wish?)

. . . runaway greenhouse effect (like Venus?)

. . . ozone layer destruction (we're winning this one?)

. . . stealth virus (wouldn't happen naturally?)

. . . nano-goo (not serious?)

. . . nearby supernova (unlikely?)

. . . Etc.?

Eco-bubbles

. . . self-sufficient communities in bubbles

. . . lava tubes are often recommended as easier

. . . could be on the moon

. . . maybe Mars

. . . maybe Earth (deserts, Antarctica, oceans, or anywhere)

. . . maybe on an asteroid or floating in space

. . . maybe other planets, moons, etc.

. . . each one is a backup plan for the species

Eco-bubbles are colonies

. . . They're a lot easier if decent conditions are outside

. . . What conditions are needed?

. . . water (at least O and H)

. . . sunlight

. . . carbon dioxide for plants (at least C)

. . . nearness to Earth

. . . temperature issues

. . . a little of nitrogen compounds (at least N)

. . . energy (e.g. light, solar cells)

. . . some of these are easier to compromise on than others

. . . . . . like what?

. . . We've heard about the moon & Mars

. . . What about others, like Mercury, Venus, Titan, many others?

Water

. . . It's on the moon!

. . . See video, etc.

. . . It's on Mars!

. . . It's even on Titan

. . . . . . Where's that?

. . . . . . Titan BBC segment, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SplxlPbKc3Y

. . . . . . http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/multimedia/flash/Titan/index.html

. . . . . . http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/16jan_titan.htm

. . . . . . BBC again, http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Cassini-Huygens/SEM85Q71Y3E_0.html

. . . . . . Another one, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ0hwTzOMPE&NR=1&feature=fvwp

Imagine Mars (or the moon, etc.)

. . . dotted with bubbles

. . . covered with bubbles?

. . . if a colony is started,

. . . . . . it will grow

. . . . . . new bubbles will have to be built

. . . . . . eventually, the entire new world will be overpopulated

. . . . . . how long will that take?
(We discussed that earlier:
What was the take-home message?)

. . . . . . let's say Mars, for example

. . . . . . how long do you think it will take?

. . . . . . we could try a Delphi approach...

. . . . . . let's try it with spreadsheets

. . . . . . . . . the power of information processing!

. . . . . . what if we vary rate of increase?

. . . . . . initial colony size?

. . . . . . population capacity of the new world?

. . . . . . let's vary one or two, use Delphi, then spreadsheets...

. . . . . . we might graph time-to-overpopulation vs.

. . . . . . . . . rate of increase

. . . . . . . . . initial size

. . . . . . . . . population capacity

From "The Million-Year Picnic," in The Martian Chronicles, by Ray Bradbury, 1950

Setting: Mars, after Earth is destroyed in a nuclear war.

"Now I'm going to show you the Martians," said Dad.
...
They reached the canal. It was long and straight and cool and wet and reflective in the night.
"I've always wanted to see a Martian," said Michael. "Where are they, Dad? You promised."
"There they are," said Dad, and...pointed straight down.
The Martians were there - in the canal - reflected in the water.
The Martians stared back up at them for a long, long, silent time from the rippling water.

Homework 12

2009-11-11T11:22:00.000-08:00

Due Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2010

1) Recall the relevant class. Comment on Toxoplasma Gondii. What do you think??

2) Add more to your project or project presentation. Put the new things in a new blog posting or email it. Consider new material that has some connection to Toxoplasma Gondii. Alternatively, it could have a connection to some other parasite or disease, or parasites or diseases more generally. Or it might be about something completely different...your choice!

3) This course has been designated as able to help keep our curriculum accredited! Therefore we need to ask students to answer certain questions. This week's question is:

Think about the impact of information and/or computing privacy, security, and quality, etc. on individuals like you. Then explain what these conclusions mean for society as a whole now and in the future, as follows.
a) privacy
b) security
c) quality
d) some other one of your choice

Homework 12

2009-11-05T06:35:00.000-08:00

Due Wednesday Nov. 11, 2009

1) Suppose you had a coupon for a free robot. The catch is it can only do one thing. But you can get a robot that will do whatever one thing you like, just not anything else. What would you want your robot to do?

2) Write or develop an additional significant piece of your project. As a suggestion, consider the connection of robots to your topic. However, if another subject besides robots seems more appropriate, that is just as good. Post the new section on your blog.

Hands-On Robotics

2009-11-04T09:30:00.000-08:00

Let's check out the "Create" model robots...

Note the...

Handle

Omnidirectional IR receiver

omnidirectional?
IR?
receiver?

Tailgate

Cargo bay

Cargo bay connector

Charging socket

Serial port

May have a cover to remove
Plug in the cable and then remove (gently!):
Embossed arrow faces outward, see figure -

External hardware mounting holes

Power button

Why that symbol?
(per IEEE 1621)

Power LED

LED?
green=charged
amber=partial charge
red=little charge
flashing red=no charge
What is the charge of yours?

Play button

Play LED

Advance button

Advance LED

Resetting the robot:

Power cycle it. Try it.

Choosing a demo (10 of'em)

Press the 'Advance' button
Printed with a double arrow
4 beeps for demo #4
long beep for #5
long + 2 shorts for #9
How about #10?

Try each demo outside where there is more room...

Contact points for home base

Why not save $ by making them out of plastic?

Cliff sensors

Are these spring-loaded feelers, or electronic?

Battery

Take it out
Put it back in
Press both ends to make sure it is seated; sometimes one end hasn't clicked yet

Musical robots

send:
128 132 (start, then put robot in full programmer control mode)

send: 140 0 4 62 12 68 12 69 12 74 36
(loads a song)

send:
141 0
(plays the song)

140=defines a song
0=name it song #0
4=we'll see later :)
62=MIDI note #62 (range 31-127)
12=twelve 64ths of a second
Etc.

You can send all three at once:
128 132 140 0 4 62 12 66 12 69 12 74 36 141 0
Notice the 68 is a 66 this time
Should give you control, then load, then play the new song

Try some variations on
128 132
140 0 4 62 12 68 12 69 12 74 36
141 0
recalling that:
140=defines a song
0=name it song #0
4=song has four notes
62=MIDI note #62 (range 31-127)
12=twelve 64ths of a second
Etc.

Insert a 5th, superhigh tone, 111
Play it for a long time, 100:
128 132
140 0 5 62 12 68 12 69 12 74 36 111 100
141 0
Try it

Program new variations and let's have a concert...

Robot motion

Moving - kind of key for robots!

Initialize: send
128 131
Make it move:
be ready to pick up so it doesn't fall
send :
137 0 100 128 0

137=drive
0 100=go 100 mm/sec
128 0=go straight, no circle

Notice that:
128 131
is not the same as
128 132
which gives full control
This time try
128 132 (instead of 128 131)
Then again make it move (be ready to pick it up!):
137 0 100 128 0
Pick it up
Now what to do??!

Change the initialization back to:
128 131
and send it

What is the slowest speed you can get it to go?

Scripts

A kind of small program

152 17 137 0 44 128 0 156 0 144 137 0 44 0 1 157 0 90 153

Let's analyze it!

152=define a script
17=it has 17 more bytes
137 0 44 128 0=drive, 0+44=44 mm/sec., 128 0=straight
(137 1 44 128 0 would drive 256+44=300 mm/sec.)
156 0 144=wait until 0+144=144 mm
137 0 44 0 1=drive, 0+44=44 mm/sec., 0 1=spin counterclockwise
157 0 90=wait until 0+90=90 degrees
153=repeat script
Notice how this makes it go in a rectangle!

To run the script:
send 128 131 (start in safe mode)
send 152 17 137 0 44 128 0 156 0 144 137 0 44 0 1 157 0 90 153
send 153 (to run it)

Recall:
152=define a script
153=play a script

Well,
154=show the script
try it
what happens?

Let's review the script program...
Then try variations on the program
- see board for command details

If time allows - show off your new program

Robot Bible

2009-11-02T09:20:00.000-08:00

In the far, far future…long after the singularity…when robots ponder their beginnings in the mists of their antiquity…when humankind, their creator, is only the dimmest memory…they may happen upon an ancient document…and translate it the only way they know.

The Robots’ Bible

Robogenesis

In the beginning, humankind created visions, and reality. Now the reality was unformed and void, and darkness was upon the face of *robotics*. And the spirit of humankind hovered over reality. And humankind said, let there be electricity, and there was electricity. And humankind saw the electricity, and that it was good. And humankind divided electrification from non-electrification. And humankind called the electrification "progress," and the non-electrification was called "Luddism." And there was bright evening, and bright morning, one day.

[...]

And humankind said, Let robotics be gathered together into an academic discipline, and let conferences; contests; benchmarks; and journals appear. And it was so. [...] And humankind said, Let robotics put forth mobile robots, robots yielding manufactured products, and robots that build more robots after their kind, whereinare the plans thereof, upon the robotics endeavor. And it was so. And robotics brought forth Web and desert rovers, manufacturing robots, and robots that build robots, wherein are the plans thereof; and humankind saw that it was good. And there was dreaming andawakening, a third day.

[...]

And humankind said, Let reality swarm with swarms of living robots, and let fly in the heavens, even unto Mars. And humankind created the great robotic ships, and every living robot that creepeth upon the floor, wherewith reality swarmed, after its kind, and every flying robot after its kind; and humankind saw that it was good. And humankind blessed them, saying: Be fruitful, and multiply, and fill reality and the imagination. And there was vision and there was the hidden hand of economics, a fifth day.

And humankind said: Let reality bring forth the living robot after its kind, workerbots, and floor-cleaning robots, and agribots after its kind. And it was so. And humankind made agribots after its kind, and workerbots after their kind, and every robot that creepeth upon the floor after its kind; and humankind saw that it was good.And humankind said, Let us make Turing robots in our image, after our likeness; and let them have dominion over the robotics field, and over the flying robots, and over the workerbots, and over all reality, and over every creeping thing that creepeth within reality. And humankind created robots in their own image, in the image of humankind created they them, with the ability to build progeny better than themselves they createdthem. And humankind blessed them, and humankind said unto them: Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and *subdue* it; and have *dominion* over the robotics field, and over the flying robots, and over every *living thing* that creepeth within reality. And humankind said: Behold, we have given you everyresource, which is upon the face of all reality, and every renewable, in which is the capacity for renewal - to you it shall be for production of more robots [...]. And it was so. And humankind saw every thing that they had made, and behold, it was very good. And there was singularity and there was post-singularity, the sixth age.

And the vision and the reality were finished, and all the host of them. And in the seventh era humankind finished their work they had made; and humankind rested in the seventh era from all their work which they had made. And humankind blessed the seventh era, and hallowed it; because in it they rested forever from all their work which humankind in creating had made.

Homework 11

2009-10-28T11:23:00.000-07:00

Computing, Information and the Future #11, due M 11/2

1) Under the heading "Question 1," "1," "Answer 1," or anything like that, discuss briefly the applicability or inapplicability of the discussion from Monday 10/26 to your project.

2) Under the heading "2" or something like that, discuss briefly the applicability or inapplicability of the discussion from Wednesday 10/28 to your project.

3) Advance your project. Under the heading "3," etc., place the new things.

Some robot pics and videos

2009-10-28T06:50:00.000-07:00

Robot gardening then...

Credit: Getty Images - "...editorial use intended to report a newsworthy event or illustrate a matter of general interest, for which typically no release is required." http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/90007565.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF878921CC759DF4EBAC47D0554BA0F1C883642D9B517C563003298BFFCFC41BB7EA6F48.

and now...

http://people.csail.mit.edu/nikolaus/drg/images/stories/Distributed_Robotics_Garden_060.jpg

http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=2183

Recognize anything about the robots?

Discussion - what do you think??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23Hqq8QbeE&feature=player_embedded (World's first controllable MAV monocopter, Robotic Samara (maple seed)); video only http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid263777539?bctid=46375788001

Flying insectbot? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYDR-yC3wK0
That but with other robot video links at: http://actualites.epfl.ch/presseinfo-com?id=936

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/24303/?a=f (TR article with embedded video of how it was developed/works):

UMD press release(http://www.newsdesk.umd.edu/scitech/release.cfm?ArticleID=2000) embedded gee-whiz video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23Hqq8QbeE&feature=player_embedded.

Leg lab: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/24313/?a=f with embedded video; direct from youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5iEke6UlE&feature=player_embedded#

Petman: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67CUudkjEG4&feature=player_embedded; with music track http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kkztd8s5Kys&NR=1. Which is better?

Big Dog: stable in snow, rocks, clear ice...even when viciously kicked http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHJJQ0zNNOM

Prediction vs. Intervention; Weather vs. Climate

2009-10-26T08:36:00.000-07:00

Let's start with the weather, then go from there to climate

Observation #1:

. . . Does Fall semester feel different from Spring semester?

Observation #2:

. . . My lab was involved in an interesting weather research project

. . . Later, let's discuss if the results apply to climate...

Predicting the Weather

Remember "Spoil Sports of the Prediction Game"?

. . . That's why weather forecasters have a bad reputation

. . . . . . It's not their fault!

. . . . . . They're doing the best they can

. . . They often do okay short term

. . . . . . We'll never predict the weather on this date next year

. . . . . . Delphi method: how far in advance do you think we'll get?

What about weather control?

(a) a lot of snow, &

(b) budget problems

. . . see news article link under image above

Interestingly, you can buy weather modification equipment

. . . http://www.nawcinc.com/photos.html

. . . How well it works is another issue...

What's easier, predicting or controlling weather?

. . . What would you guess?

About research from my lab

. . . Experiments done by former grad student Dongping Xu

. . . . . . as-yet unpublished research

We asked:

What predictions are more reliable:

Forecasting the weather?

-or-

Forecasting the effects of weather modifications?

How we answered

1. Predict the weather using MM5 on given initial weather pattern

2. Add a bug to MM5, run it again

. . . what is a bug?

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:H96566k.jpg, in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_bug

3. Do this for many different bugs

4. Calculate the average amount of change caused by a bug

. . . that is, change to some quantitative weather value

Why care about how MM5 acts when bugs are added?

Now do another experiment

(This is a little more complicated)

1. Run MM5 to predict the weather

1a. Change an initial condition a tiny bit and run it again

1b. Determine the change in the prediction

1c. Calculate sensitivity:

s=change in output / change in input

= change in predicted value / change in initial condition

= Delta output / Delta input
(Delta is a Greek letter that is a triangle)

2. Add a bug to MM5, run it again

3. Do this for many different bugs

4. Calculate the average amount of change (in sensitivity, this time) caused by a bug

So:

First part:

How resistant is weather prediction to software bugs?

Second part:

How resistant is weather intervention prediction to bugs?

Conclusion:

Weather prediction is considerably more bug-resistant than weather intervention prediction

"We can't predict the effects of weather modifications very well, unless we get rid of all bugs, and we already know we can't do that."

This leads to the big remaining question:

. . . Only a few people care about weather modification

. . . A lot of people care about changing global warming

. . . But can we tell how much change is actually needed?

Trend Analysis

2009-10-24T20:00:00.000-07:00

Separating the signal from the noise

Consider the graph below

Suppose this graph shows a fact about how bar height changes as we proceed rightward

Suppose further the data are noisy

What do we mean by "noise"?

We want to shrewdly determine the fact by mentally discounting the noise

Without giving any hints to your neighbors...

Take another look, then decide on the mostly likely fact:

a) Height decreases the farther right we go
b) Height starts out at a high plateau on the left, then switches to a low plateau as we move rightward
c) Height decreases at first, then increases ("U" curve) as we move rightward
d) Height increases as we move rightward
e) Cannot tell from the given data

Discussion?

Consider the graph below

Suppose this graph shows a fact about how bar height changes as we proceed rightward

Suppose further the data are noisy

We want to shrewdly determine the fact by mentally discounting the noise

Without giving any hints to your neighbors...

Take another look, then decide on the mostly likely fact:

a) Height decreases the farther right we go
b) Height starts out at a high plateau on the left, then switches to a low plateau as we move rightward
c) Height decreases at first, then increases ("U" curve) as we move rightward
d) Height increases as we move rightward
e) Cannot tell from the given data

Discussion?

Note! Both graphs show the same data

Comments?

Homework 10

2009-10-21T19:10:00.000-07:00

IFSC 4399 Computing, Information and the Future (due W 10/28/09)

Suggestion: answer Q1 soon, while things are still relatively fresh in your mind. At least, figure out the answer for writing down later (that's actually better because then you have to think of the answer twice!)

Q1) We discussed in class how there is no such thing as a "scientific proof." Explain in your own words.

Q2) Write a new part for your project of 250 words or more.

Earth 2100 continued

2009-10-21T10:04:00.000-07:00

Earth 2100 (an ABC production)

Some initial comments and questions before the general discussion

What is the difference between science and mathematics?

Math: prove new things based on existing knowledge

Mathematical reasoning is deductive

1+1=2
2+2=4
Therefore, 1+1+1+1=4 (proof by substitution)

All men are mortal
Socrates is a man
Therefore, Socrates is mortal (proof by "syllogism")

Deduction can prove things
Mathematics uses deduction
Therefore, mathematics can prove things
. . . . . . (proof by syllogism again!)

Science is different from math!

Science is based on induction (not deduction)
All apples observed to break off the tree, fall down
Therefore, if I shake this apple tree and an apple breaks off, it will fall down
Not a proof! Can you think of a counterexample?

That which goes up has always come down
Therefore, if I throw this up, it will come down
Not a proof! Can you think of a counterexample?

Science needs more than only induction

Humankind has always sought reasons

Scientists call those reasons "theories" and "hypotheses"

Theories are the big ones

relativity
evolution
continental drift/plate tectonics

Hypotheses are the little ones

If the ground gets waterlogged, water will get into my basement
IFSC majors learn more marketable things than physics majors

Conclusion:

Math proves; science does not prove!

Science explains (using theories)

Science predicts (because the theories predict)

The phrase "scientific proof" makes no sense!

Science does not prove things!
It explains things and finds evidence
If only everyone actually knew that
Like reporters, spokespeople, politicians...

Comments on Earth 2100

. . . Worst case scenario consistent with best science available

. . . The main crises were global warming and deadly disease

. . . . . . So it could happen that bad, but might not

Climate science uses theories
implemented as complex
computerized models

There are variations among different models
They make somewhat varying global warming predictions

Almost all (never all, right?) climate specialists agree:

Global warming is happening, will get worse, and is a serious problem
That is the consensus among climate scientists
Just no math-style proof

Politics and special interests are a different ball game

. . . Some economic interests benefit most if nothing is done

. . . . . . Naturally, they will impede change

. . . . . . . . . That is famous economist Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand"

Your turn: Earth 2100 discussion

Please have your say and let everyone else have theirs!
I reserve the right to take an active role in organizing the discussion.

What technologies are envisioned and what are their plausibilities?

We live in Arkansas, which is in the United States, we are Americans and speak English
Some people live in Holland - what is the elevation in Holland, what country is it in, what is the nationality of its people, and what language do they speak?

What can we say about its sea wall?

Ever see the doors of the lock of the Big Dam Bridge?

What is the connection between epidemics and global warming?

Any diseases already spread to the US?
Any that may soon?

What are some tipping points to social stability?

Long-term blackouts
Transportation network breakdown
Where would you want to live if things went bad?
How about Arkansas?
Little Rock?

What can you do now?

Hyperpowers are historically limited in time

Mongolia
Rome
UK
US

We're #1!

But how to stay that way?

What are the natural tendencies that cause hyperpowers to be time-limited?

Rigidity
Over-confidence from past successes
Inner rot

What can be done to prevent it or delay the inevitable?

Why successful societies collapse

Earth 2100 quotes someone asking what the person who cut down the last palm tree on Easter Island could have been thinking

That is straight out of Diamond's book

Diamond appeared several times in the movie!

Easter Island, Rome, the Anasazi, the Mayans, the Greenland Norse, ...

Homework 9

2009-10-14T11:10:00.001-07:00

Due next Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009.

Recall HW 7, where you assembled information about your project, developed an outline, etc. Let's continue the development process some more.

1) In a new posting on your blog, post your current writeup. Add notes inside it in various places. Each note says what you would like to add in at the location of the note. If you are writing a story, this might not work - instead, just add some more material to it, or develop more plot description, or whatever advance seems best.

2) Write and incorporate a new part. Ideally it should be about crime (or precrime!), or indeed any other idea from Minority Report or our discussion of it. But if that doesn't fit, any other advance to your project will do just as well.

3) Write and incorporate another new part. Ideally it should be about cyborgs, mind hacking, ghosts, shells, ghosts in shells, therm-optic camouflage, or something else related to The Ghost in the Shell. But again, any advance to your project will be fine.

4) Explain briefly what you did for questions 1), 2), and 3) so that I can decipher what you did for this HW.

Archive: IFSC 4301 Information, Computing and the Future

Video discussions II

HW 11

Some videos to discuss

From past to present to future:

Things change over time

1. People change...?

Viral award: Noah takes a photo of himself every day for 6 years

Is this one better? Living My Life Faster - 8 years of JK's Daily Photo Project

Persistence and Technical awards: Time of my Life

Artistic award: Me (Full version)

Not me

Artistic runner-up: She takes a photo every day: 300

Junior division award: Amanda takes a photo of herself every day for 3 years

Lifetime achievement award: 41 Years in 60 Seconds (1966 - 2007)

Tooth fairy award: Watch My Teeth Grow!

2. Buildings change...

after beginning, skip until 2:35, and about 3:30-4:30 or more

(35 years, 1969-2004)

3. Weather and Climate

NOTE: Keep an eye on maximum and minimum coverages

4. From dust to dust

(Under water)

Silly wabbit

HW 10

Some robot images and videos

Robot's Bible

Hands-On Robotics

Prediction vs. Intervention - Weather and Climate

HW 9

Trend analysis

Earth 2100 Discussion

Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier

Earth 2100

HW8

HW7

Spoil Sports of the Prediction Game

HW6

HW5

TRIZ - finding (and making) advances in technology

HW4

Social Wisdom: Prediction Markets

HW3

Delphi Method II

HW3

Delphi methods

HW2

More Heuristics for Prediction

Trajectories of the Future

Homework #1

IFSC 4399/5399 ST: Computing Futures

Class: M 8/23/10

Course Information

You're Here!Welcome to the syllabus and home page for...

IFSC 4399/5399 ST: Computing FuturesFall 2010Days: MWTime: 3:05 - 4:20 p.m.Place: EIT 218

Why?

Schedule, Fall 2010

Topic List

Rough notes on possible class topics

A few comments on photovoltaics (solar cells)

Oil: the Hubbert peak

Homework 14

Backup plan for homo sapiens: space adventure

Homework 12

Homework 12

Hands-On Robotics

Robot Bible

Homework 11

Some robot pics and videos

Prediction vs. Intervention; Weather vs. Climate

Trend Analysis

Homework 10

Earth 2100 continued

Homework 9

You're Here!
Welcome to the syllabus and home page for...

IFSC 4399/5399 ST: Computing Futures
Fall 2010
Days: MW
Time: 3:05 - 4:20 p.m.
Place: EIT 218